Research On Customer Value Prediction Model For New Product’s Design Scheme

At the background of the fierce global competitive environment, new products competition has become the focus of competition among enterprises in the same industry. And thus new product development has also become a protection of the enterprises which want to enhance the core competitiveness and gain a competitive advantage in the rapidly changing market environment. However, there is not only a high-cost characteristic in the new product development process, but also a higher cost for the failure possibility in new product development. Successful development of new products is not just a purely technical problem, it needs to consider a variety of factors beyond the technology, which also requires new product developers fully integrated various factors in the design of new products’ scheme, give a proper assessment for several new product’s design scheme and make a best selection, in order to improve the success rate of new product development.In order to better meet users needs and help new products’ developers to use computer technology faster and better to select a better new product’s design scheme, this paper researched and analyzed related articles both at home and abroad in the assessment for new product’s design scheme, and proposed a new CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for new product’s design scheme (C&M-CVPM for short), based on the customer value prediction decision support system model for new product which proposed by S.L.Chan et al. This research content mainly includes the following four aspects:(1)The impact assessment research of the influencing factors for the successful development of new products. From the two key aspects of the case representation and the similarity assessment, this paper studied how case-based reasoning (CBR) technology retrieve the case of existing products which is most similar to the new product from the company’s existing historical products data, in order to help decision makers relieve the workload of the impact assessment of the influencing factors.(2)The research for distinguishing the effectiveness of the influencing factors to different levels of customers in new products development. This paper mainly studied how multiplicative analytic hierarchy process(MAHP) help decision makers to calculate certain influencing factor’s weight under different levels of customers through expert’s assessment preference matrix and thus distinguish the effectiveness of the influencing factors to different levels of customers.(3)The research of customer value prediction model for new product’s design scheme. A stochastic dynamic customer transition probability is added in the customer value prediction model for new product proposed by S.L.Chan et al. And the work process and the function realization of each module of customer value prediction model for new product’s design scheme is researched, in order to help decision makers to calculate customer value of new product’s design scheme and achieve to select a better new product’s design scheme.(4)The research of the validation test to customer value prediction model for new product’s design scheme. The feasibility and validation test to customer value prediction model for new product’s design scheme is completed, by designing an new ordinary toothbrush product development experiment via the tool of Matlab.