A Study On Implementation Conditions Of Monetary Policy Based On The Theory Of Integrate With Fuzzy Set In China

During the thirty years after the reform and opening up, China’s economy can sustain long-term high growth, which was closely related with China’s macroeconomic control policies, monetary policy played an increasingly important role in China’s macro-control system, China’s central bank formulated and implemented appropriate monetary policy for the expectation of ensuring rapid and healthy development of China’s economy. The study of monetary policy has become an important issue of macroeconomic research.People’s Bank of China began to fulfill the central bank’s official duties until1985, and began to implement the monetary policy in the true sense. People’s Bank of China takes price stability as the main objective of monetary policy, while taking economic growth, full employment and balance of payments into account, take money supply as an intermediate target, and uses the deposit reserve ratio, interest rate policy, open market operations and other monetary policy tools to regulate and control the macroeconomic. But in the process of monetary policy transmission (monetary policy tools——intermediate targets——ultimate goals) there exists a certain lag, therefore monetary policy operation must be forward-looking, the central bank can not take actions until the economy has already been overheated or too cold, by which time the central bank can only passively respond, that is, People’s Bank of China need to seize the opportunity and direction of monetary policy operations, and accurately identify the implementation conditions of monetary policyIn in the current macroeconomic background in which the economic activities are more complex, and the uncertainty is increasing, this article researched the implementation conditions of monetary policy, its purpose is to correctly analyze the current macroeconomic situation and future trends, accurately determine monetary policy’s implementation timing and direction, prolong the economic boom, shorten or postpone a recession, avoid volatility in the economy, and promote the economy to develop steadily, healthily and rapidlyThis article summarized the domestic and foreign research about economic cycles and counter-cyclical monetary policy. Based on these theories, the article explored the counter-cyclical characteristics of China’s economic macro-control, as well as the anti-theoretical basis and limitations of counter-cyclical monetary policy operations. Then, analyzed the cognitive basis and analysis logic, and found that the core idea of the theory of integrate with fuzzy set matched financial market’s operation characteristics, the theory of integrate with fuzzy set was a new idea and method of analyzing financial market. On this basis, analyzed and built logic hypothesizes for the implementation conditions of monetary policy in the use of the theory of integrate with fuzzy set studied the monetary policy and the economic performance which was represented by economic growth and inflation, set econometric model with dummy variables to test the rationality and effectiveness of the implementation conditions of monetary policy.The results of case studies are:composite score of monetary policy’s implementation conditions was0.609; Econometric test results are:in the lag9model, lag10model and lag11model, explanatory variables significantly accepted the implementation conditions of monetary policy by the theory of integrate with fuzzy set.From the paper, we can get the following conclusions:(1) There are necessity and feasibility for monetary policy counter-cyclical operation.(2) The hypothesizes about the implementation conditions of monetary policy is reasonable and effective, is in favor of the practical operations of monetary policy, and improve policy effectiveness.(3) There exists a certain time lag from the implementation of monetary policy to taking effect, central bank need to operate monetary policy prospectively.