Study On The Relationship Between The Fluctuation Of Timber Price And Macro-economy

The fluctuation of timber price is the common topic on which thepolicy-makers, scholars and forest managers all focus. Mastering therules between the fluctuation of timber price and macro-economy is notonly beneficial to consolidate the achievements of the reform ofcollective forest rights and manager the forest scientifically for theforest managers, but also beneficial to work out the reasonable policiesfor the forestry authorities. In this paper, the mechanism of pricing wasdiscussed firstly. And then, three important characteristics were beendiscovered: the fluctuation of timber price will ultimately depend on thedomestic economic development; though the timber price fluctuates in theshort term, timber price will tend to rise; while the timber price risesin the long term, but it may not rise without limits. In the end, basedon data form the state-owned forest in the Fujian province, therelationship between the price of China fir and Chinese red pine andmacro-economy was be studied empirically. Some conclusions was beacquired: the price of not only China fir but also Chinese red pine isinfluenced by the macro-economic variables Z(the whole social housinginvestment) and PPI(producer price index), and more by the variable PPI.Once PPI rises by1%, the price of China fir rises by8.514926%,and Chinesered pine by2.9961%. Therefore, not only the forest managers but also theforest authorities should pay more attentions to the relationship betweenthe timber price and the macro-economic variables, which can be used toguide the practice of forestry production.