The Forecast Of Economic Growth Of Shanxi Province Based On The Spatial Panel Data

At present, Combining with the driving factors of regional economic development andspatial correlation between regions, and then predicting the region economy development isthe hot issue of the academia. This paper studies the county in Shanxi Province and thecharacteristics of regional economic growth of economic analysis and forecast the researcharea, reveals the evolution trend of the research of regional economy and its impact factors,and then proposes the corresponding strategies and suggestions.Firstly, this paper introduces the spatial correlation theory, then reference the conceptand principle of spatial panel data model. Through the empirical, we analyze thecharacteristics of the spatial correlation to Shanxi Province. After that, put the space variableand time lagged variable into the equation to study the condition of the Shanxi Province areaeconomy. Through a series of inspection we get the equation. After make sure that equation isscientific, we predict the GDP of Shanxi Province area in2013-2015and2020.(1) There was a positive correlation of the county economy of Shanxi Province globalspace, at the same time the degree of spatial autocorrelation county unit has certainfluctuations over time. That means there is regional spatial agglomeration among the countyeconomy of Shanxi Province, but the agglomeration degree varies with age.(2) The local spatial autocorrelation of S the county economy of Shanxi Province resultshows that the hot spot distribution is great changed. In other words, the Shanxi Provincecounty territory economy development imbalance and each county economic development arenot stable. Through our analysis we can describe economy of the study area and therelationship between other areas. Basis on the above analysis we put forward somesuggestions, such as creating growth pole, building collaborative development of theeconomic circle and developing characteristic economy.(3) Through regression model is helpful to the analysis of every area growthcharacteristics of each region, then put forward the corresponding suggestion and analyzevariables to the influence degree of the regional economy. It plays a significant role in thevarious regions of the area economic development. And then we suggest that vigorouslydevelop clean energy because of our huge of coal Insist on a sustainable path.Finally, after having got panel data equation, we predict the economic developmentdirection of every area in Shanxi Province from2013to2020which is very useful to us to“The13th five-year plan” of regional economic development in Shanxi Province.