Turnover Tax And Income Tax On The Empirical Analysis Of Industry Difference Effect

At present, the international economic situation is in a state of more serious, especially in the international financial crisis and the outbreak of the crisis, the international economic environment as a whole showing a worsening trend both in developed countries and developing countries by the larger impact. So our country’s economy, especially China’s three major industrial structure imbalance, the development of industry, it has gradually become the important reason for the sustainable development of China’s economy, as a result, how to perfect the current industrial structure, adjust and optimize the industrial structure has become the focus of the government and scholars from all walks of life care. Some scholars put forward we should give full play to the market mechanism to adjust the industrial structure, this is workable in theory, but we all know that the effectiveness of the market regulation is need a long time, and also very may be due to market failure problems lead to low efficiency. Therefore, there is more and more scholars focus on the government, look forward to the government has more guidance to the market development. Tax is operable policy in the government macroeconomic regulation and control policy, the government can be produced according to the industrial structure problem to formulate the corresponding tax policy and effective methods and measures of industrial structure. Tax is the country to achieve its functions, with political power, in accordance with the statutory regulations, through tax means forcibly, free of charge to participate in the national income and distribution and redistribution of social products are a form of fiscal revenue. As a result, we can see tax for developing course of China’s three major industries has a key role. In this paper, through the empirical research on tax policy means microcosmic policy:turnover tax and income tax for three big industry output value differences and the influence of industrial structure, for China’s new round of reform of tax system structure and promote the development of the three major industries that adjust the industrial structure to make policy recommendations which are of important significance.Can draw from the existing literature, the role of tax policy for the development of the economy, has always been the focus of the scholars from all walks of life. Mainly in phases:the first stage is to study the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth, studies have shown that both at home and abroad scholars research conclusions appeared difference, mainly because of tax policy impact on the economy with complexity, it needs to be limited in a particular condition to achieve a certain effect. But behind these results for further refinement of the tax policy effect on quality at present our country economy provides a good theoretical basis, but it is not suitable for the present our country the requirements of the stability of benign economic development needs, the change of economic structure requires us more specific to explore the influence of tax function. Since1994"governments" reform, the adjustment of the tax structure for how to promote economic development became the focus of attention. The second stage is to study the effect of tax system structure on economic growth. And the correlation of tax structure and economic growth is largely the turnover tax and income tax and the relationship of the two. More and more scholars have more use of the two main body tax under the tax to study the influence on the economic effect, but the conclusion is different, the main reason is that their respective conditions set different tax is not the same, namely so conclusion points to is different also. The third stage is to study the effect of tax system structure of industrial economy. See from existing research results are mostly focused on the macro level tax economic impact on industry and micro level or single a few tax tax structure impact on the industrial economy, and the direction is not for industrial economy is the industrial structure in terms of quality, affect the conclusions are controversial. No more systematic research to the development of industrial economy the tax structure, namely system comprehensive study tax structure under two main tax turnover tax and income tax for the industrial economy "quantity"(three industry value) and the influence of the "mass"(industrial structure). And empirical research is relatively few. This article is based on the VAR empirical model to explore the turnover tax and income tax effect of the whole industrial economy. Trying to find the strongest policy variables, the tax system structure change how can give good industrial economy development the most advantageous role, strengthen the government macroeconomic regulation and control policy is scientific, guidance and effectiveness.Turnover tax and income tax in our country present situation is:the total tax revenue basic is always higher than the total amount of income tax revenue, and turnover accounted for the proportion of the whole tax revenue income tax is higher than the proportion of the total tax revenue. But in recent years is obvious, and the differences in the narrow. B annual growth rate is maintained in a state of steady growth, the income tax rate volatility is larger, in recent years, growth momentum is slightly faster than the turnover tax. This shows that our country is advocated by the tax as the main body of a single tax system structure is steadily to the "double main body" the turnover tax and income tax and the tax structure of development. Turnover tax and income tax for the second and the third industry is profound, the influence of the new tax system structure will inevitably affect the elements of the flow between each industry, thus affect the added value of each industry, and then influence the development of the industrial structure changes.Current situation of the development of three major industry of our country at present is that it can be seen that the development situation of three industries is the most rapid development of the third industry, it is steadily rising as a share of GDP, followed by the second industry, the added value of it has always been among the highest in the three industries, but can also see it as a share of GDP is a downward trend year by year, the last is the first industry, three industrial added value is the smallest, as a share of GDP has slightly declined year by year. And according to the research, a country, if the third industry to GDP ratio is also great for the benign development of economy is the better, although in recent years the development of the third industry in our country, a good momentum of development, but still not and second industry as a share of GDP, this to our country has been related to the extensive mode of economic development, a large number of relying on natural resources, heavy production, not heavy quality. Therefore, in order to improve the economic development mode in our country, making towards health economy in our country, the direction of sustainable development, and the optimization of industrial structure must be conducted. Finally, pay attention to the basic position of primary industry, the basis position of primary industry must be kept with alternative, the steady development of the it directly determines the domestic economic and social stability, also is the supporting basis for the development of secondary industry and tertiary industry. From the above data analysis, China’s industrial economic development still has a lot of improvement, and its change is to have a variety of reasons, the need to countries and the support and concern of the whole society.In this paper, based on the VAR model on the basis of the selected data in1994-1994, all variables can be divided into four groups:the first industry of variable groups:LnLS, LnSS, LnY1, the second industry variable groups:LnLS, LnSS, LnY2, variables of the third industry groups:LnLS, LnSS, LnY3. Industrial structure variable groups:LnLS, LnSS, LnJS. Secondly, for the economic variables in this paper the time series stationarity test, cointegration test, granger causality test, and according to the principle of AIC, SC, etc on the lag order inspection. Then, in this article the VAR model endogenous variable selection and recognition criteria for this paper. Finally, through VAR vector autoregressive model established in this paper, the empirical results, this article mainly from the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis of two aspects to the empirical analysis of four variables set, impulse response and variance decomposition results, analysis of relevant economic conclusion in detail.According to the results of impulse response:First, turn over the relatively small effect on the added value of the first industry, the impact time is short, in the long term, dynamic accumulation effect for negative effects; Income tax is bigger than tax effect on the added value of primary industry, the impact time is longer, the long-term cumulative effect is negative. But on the whole, the influence degree of the income tax is not very high.Second, the added value of turnover of the second industry impact is not big, influence period is shorter, the long term, dynamic accumulation response to negative effects; Income tax on the added value of secondary industry influence is bigger, and also influence period is longer, the long-term cumulative effect is negative.Third, the added value of turnover of the third industry influence also is not big, also influence period is shorter, the long-term dynamic accumulation effect is negative. Income tax on the added value of the third industry influence effect, the biggest influence period is longer, the long-term cumulative effect is negative.Fourth, turnover tax on influence degree of industrial structure in the short term is not big, but in the long term, the impact is very big, affect period is longer, the long-term cumulative effect is negative. Income tax is greatly impact on the industrial structure in the short term, long term effect is not obvious, and affect the period compared with circulation taxes is not long.Variance decomposition results:First of all, the tax revenue impact of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry contribution of7.03%,7.8%and9.20%respectively. Show that the tax revenue impact of tertiary industry output value contribution is the largest, second, is on the impact of the second industry output value contribution, and the first industry to produce impact contribution is the smallest. Income tax revenue impact of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry output value contribution of8.05%,27.16%and29.50%.Second, the turnover tax and income tax for the contribution of industrial structure optimization is17.21%and5.97%, respectively. Changes in the short term, income tax to adjust the industrial structure effect is good, in the long run, effect is more apparent, turnover tax adjustment industrial structure is more stronger.Through the empirical analysis, the following conclusions:First, the added value of the three major industries of turnover tax and income tax impact impulse response trajectory is similar, but the degree of response and strength is different, both have weak negative effect on the added value of three industries. Turnover tax effect on the added value of the third industry is the largest, followed by the second industry, the last is the first industry. Also, income tax is also effect on the added value of the third industry is the largest, followed by the second industry, the last is the first industry. In overall, the income tax’s influence on the three industrial added value is greater than the turnover tax effects. That impact on output, income tax adjustment function is better than b.Second, the industrial structure on the impact of turnover tax and income tax impulse response figure trajectory is similar, just different response strength, both of the industrial structure will generate a weak negative effects. In the short term, comparing income tax’s influence on the adjustment of industrial structure effect is strong, but in the long run, compared to income tax, tax’s influence on the industrial structure adjustment effect is better. That impact on the structure, turnover tax adjustment function better than income taxes.Third, both impact on three industry value and the impact on the industrial structure, turnover tax and income tax contribution is not high, indicates that the development of industrial economy factor is the result of the various aspects function, tax policy is just one of the very small.The good development of industrial economy, not just focus on the expansion of scale, more should pay attention to the structure optimization and upgrading, so as to obtain the sustainable development of economy. This process needs more factors to rely on and support, both need to improve the health of the market, also need to have the scientific nature and the guidance of the government macroeconomic regulation and control policy, therefore, the government needs to take advantage of the policy advantages to guide the flow of resources, elements of healthy economic development mode. Finally, the paper from how to reform and improve the current tax structure and market environment two aspects promote industrial economy the healthy development of the scale and structure of quality put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.