| Over the last decade, the rapid development of China’s economy, the level of industrialization and urbanization continued to improve, with the development of the real estate market in the most dazzling. Today, the real estate industry has become an important factor in promoting the development of China’s national economy, seems to have become the focus of government policy and public concern. In retrospect, China’s real estate industry has undergone major infancy (1978-1991), irrational speculation and adjustment phase (1992-1997), the rapid development phase (1998-2003) and macro-control stage (2003So far the development process) four stages.In recent years, the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market has become increasingly prominent, and the real estate market through various channels can further reaction in the real economy. Needless to say, the development of the real estate market to further improve the asset prices of monetary policy pathway. Meanwhile, the real estate market in the monetary policy transmission process complexity and uncertainty, which also increases the difficulty of implementing monetary policy monetary authorities. Therefore, the main task of this paper is to study the role of the real estate market in the monetary policy transmission process has played through empirical analysis, and make relevant policy recommendations:for the obstacles and problems that exist in the conduction process in order to promote China’s real estate market healthy development, improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.Articles were theoretically elaborated on how monetary policy affects real estate prices and price fluctuations affect both the real economy issues, in order to establish the appropriate analytical framework. First, the main impact of monetary policy on the real estate market through interest rate, credit and money supply three ways to cause price fluctuations. Second, price fluctuations and balance sheet effects and the expected effect produced by the effect on Tobin’s Q theory of investment impact; impact on consumption through the wealth effect and the crowding-out effect; Finally, each of the aforementioned factors that cause changes to influence aggregate supply and demand price level. Then in the empirical analysis, this paper used the cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, VECM and impulse response of the various effects, such as the above two stages were analyzed test. From the empirical results, the way monetary policy transmission to the real estate market is basically open. Specifically, the short term, the money supply and loans of financial institutions to effectively influence real estate prices, an increase in the money supply and an increase in the loan amount will be prompted housing prices. But according to structural vector autoregression model, changing the ratio of loan amount to change the money supply in the short term more significant impact on prices. Changes in interest rates on short-term rates less influential, separate it as inappropriate monetary policy tools to control prices, the fundamental reason is that our non-market interest rates.Secondly, the way the real estate price fluctuations have an impact on the real economy has been largely unimpeded. First, the impact of price fluctuations on consumption point of view, between the country’s consumer price fluctuations and stable long-run equilibrium relationship, but the effectiveness of its consumption is produced slight inhibition, and less influence. The reasons are mainly the following points:First, China is still in a stage of rapid development of urbanization. Second, this is our residents must have a room of traditional ideas about freedom. Third, the lack of mature mortgage markets and related derivatives markets is an important reason for restricting real estate wealth effect. Look price fluctuations impact on investment.Looking at the results from the empirical analysis, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the country’s fixed asset investment, real estate prices, credit and lending rates of financial institutions. Increase in housing prices and the credit can promote the growth of investment in fixed assets, and there is a slight negative correlation between interest rates and investment, and the influence is not strong. Finally, by studying the impact of price fluctuations on the price level of discovery, there is a long-term stable positive correlation between China’s real estate prices and the level of inflation, rising prices will push up inflation levels.Through the above analysis verification, this paper gives his final conclusions and policy recommendations. First, it can be said that China’s monetary policy can effectively produce the impact on real estate prices, price fluctuations can effectively influence the real economy, prices of basic transmission mechanism of monetary policy is there, the real estate market as a conduction channel is basically smooth. Meanwhile, due to the imperfections of the financial system, the real estate market maturity enough other issues, some of the conduction path of monetary policy is not enough unobstructed by real estate prices, such as interest rates in the monetary policy transmission pathways. Way from the impact of price fluctuations on the real economy, the monetary policy by price fluctuations affecting the real economy, the basic flow. First, the empirical analysis of the text of the previous term, the consumer price fluctuations will produce a slight inhibition of China’s real estate market wealth effect is not obvious. But according to research and analysis, price fluctuations and investment in fixed assets has a strong positive correlation, and the impact very quickly. It can be said prices affect the investment is the main way of monetary policy affect the real economy through price fluctuations. Another price fluctuations affect the performance of the real economy, prices can price level, inflation impact. From the foregoing it can be seen empirical analysis, prices impact on inflation in the short term is more obvious in the long run, the influence will gradually diminish.After conclusion, i put forward the corresponding policy recommendations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism of the problems. First, to maintain prudent monetary policy, flexible use of policy instruments, prudential regulation of the real estate market. Second, accelerate market-oriented interest rate reform. In the course of monetary policy to be conducted in several real estate, interest rates are not smooth way, the main reason is that our non-market interest rates. Accelerate the effective interest rate market to get rid of this obstruction, and further enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Third, increase the supply of real estate, to promote affordable housing and low-rent housing construction. Fourth, the further liberalization of capital controls, allowing domestic funds to sea. Products and asset classes abroad may invest significantly more than domestic, so the liberalization of capital controls is very effective for solving domestic funds lake. Fifth, be tax reform, central and local financial authority powers to resolve the mismatch. Sixth, accelerate the construction of the social security system, and promote effective growth of domestic demand.Finally, talk about the innovation of this paper. First, the object of study, previous studies focused on the stock of assets, will be used as conductive medium. Conducting research for the role of real estate prices in monetary policy is not much. Especially in today’s China, the stock market exists drawbacks, and the capital stock of the real estate market is much larger than the stock market, its influence is even more enormous, its research is clearly more meaningful. In research methods, the use of qualitative research or policy analysis conducted previous studies. Secondly, as described in the literature review, the majority of research is to separate the impact of monetary policy on house prices and the impact of price fluctuations on the real economy to study, the choice of monetary policy instruments variables or indicators have focused on the real economy. The study rates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy as a whole to consider less because of the lack of comprehensiveness and accuracy. The variables and data selection, the biggest problem is the data is not accurate or selected data sample is not enough. Abolition of welfare housing system in1998, carried the commercialization of housing reform, a higher degree of market prices later in time, to better reflect the real market situation. |
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