Statistical Analysis On The Impact Of Shadow Bank On The Selection Of Monetary Policy Intermediate Target

Over the past ten years, with the rapid growth of Chinese economy, the domestic financial environment also changed a lot. Financial innovation guaranteed the development of economy, especially the shadow banking system. In2013, bank financial products issued exceeded56trillion, assets of trust company became the second largest, and the folk financing was also thriving because small companies could not finance from banks. Shadow banks are gradually turning bank deposits into their liabilities, if government don’t intervene, it is difficult to ensure that shadow Banks won’t shake the status of commercial Banks in the financial system.Although the shadow banking played a very important role in the development of economy over the past few years, because of the shadow banking’highly leveraged and opaque nature, it brought a big challenge to the effect of monetary policy.Because monetary policy intermediate is the core of the monetary policy, it makes the study of the shadow banking’s impact on China’s monetary policy intermediate selection have strong practical significance. At this stage, study of the shadow banking is mainly concentrated in its impact on macroeconomic stability, monetary policy implementation effect, legal regulation, studies on its influence on China’s monetary policy intermediate selection are very few, which makes this paper have a certain academic value.In this paper, the general idea is similar to ordinary economic papers. First raise questions, then analyze problems, and finally solve the problem. The focus of study mainly includes the following:(1) test the correlation between money supply and monetary policy final goal empirically.(2) classify financial instruments created by shadow Banks into appropriate level of money supply.(3) put forward feasible advice on the choice of China’s monetary policy intermediate.In general, Method in this paper has combined theory with practice, qualitative analysis with quantitative research. Specifically, this paper mainly adopts the following research methods:literature research, deductive inference, empirical analysis and comparative analysis.Through research, we get the following three conclusions:(1) the shadow Banks has weakened the central bank’s controllability on money supply.(2)From the output effect, in the short term, social financing scale is superior to the M2; in the long term, social financing scale is worse than M2; From the point of price effect, social financing scale is better than M2.(3)Affected by the shadow banking system, China’s monetary statistics exists a problem. We give the following suggestions:off-balance-sheet financing products should be included into M3; Trust deposits should be included into M3. The entrusted loans should be included in M3.The mainly possible innovation of this paper are as follows:Firstly, the research angle. The starting point of previous study of China’s monetary policy intermediate selection can be summed up in financial innovation. But here the the definition of financial innovation is very narrow, it only includes innovation of deposits department. With the expansion of the scale of the shadow banking in our country, it is necessary to research the influence of shadow banking on China’s monetary policy intermediate selection.Secondly, empirical analysis of previous research is too simple, usually by only showing that the correlation between money supply and the ultimate goal of monetary policy is becoming week and week. And in this paper we put both the adjusted total social financing and money supply into empirical model to compare two variables directly.Thirdly, previous research on selection of monetary policy intermediate obey the principle that there is intermediate target is unique and this article concludes that we should use multiple monetary policy intermediate.Due to limited time and awkward research ability, there are still many deficiencies in this paper. Mainly as follows:Firstly, analysis on controllability of monetary policy intermediate is slightly week. Due to the difficulty of solving of this problem, it has not been solved by other researchers yet, and the paper didn’t overcome this problem either.Secondly, this paper focused on the advantages and disadvantages of money supply as the intermediate target, and compared it with the total social financing. But we didn’t compares it with interest rates, inflation and so on together.Thirdly, because the knowledge involved in shadow banking is practical, especially the financial instruments created by shadow banking is complicated and changeable, so some errors existed in the process of research in this article is inevitable.