The Empirical Study Of The Impact Of House Prices On Consumption In Yangtze River Delta

The real estate industry in recent years gradually grows into a pillar industry of our country’s economy. Since housing reform in 1998, the rate of residential privatization gradually improves, housing prices are rising,but the consumption rate in our country, especially the residents’ consumption has continued to decline. Consumption,one of the troika of economic development, is an important endogenous dynamic of economic development of a country. So studying the prices of the effect on consumption of used to ensure long-term, good fast economic development is of great significance.This paper is based on life cycle hypothesis, permanent income hypothesis as well as the standard model of LC – PIH and studies the effect of house price on consumption. First of all, it is based on the real estate market wealth on the wealth effect, the wealth effect of the outstanding, budget constraint effect, liquidity constraints, effect and substitution effect to analyze the impact of house price on consumer spending; Then it chooses Yangtze river delta region as the research object, using SVAR model to analyze the impact of house prices on consumption of the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2014 and first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2014. Finally it uses the panel threshold regression model analyze the impact of house price on consumption under credit constraints of 16 cities in Yangtze river delta.This article research conclusions are as follows:(1)As the commodity residential house prices rise, total retail sales of social consumer goods increase of q11999 –q22014 and q12008-q22014, the two time in the Yangtze river delta region. It shows that the real estate market does exist positive wealth effects, but the wealth effect of the relative to disposable income to faint a lot, it shows that for now residents income is the main influence factors, expanding consumer demand also demonstrated the consumer has excessive dependence on income in our country.(2)The real estate market wealth effect is slightly obviously after 2008 years, There is trend of increasingly strong, positive effect of house prices boost consumption in the long run than in the short term.(3) under the system of the two districts of credit constraints, the impact of house price on consumption is positive. the strength of the area under high level is four times more than the lower region, And different cities can differ, because of the strength of the degree of credit constraints. It can make the real estate market wealth effect is different. If the credit constraints are looser, the wealth effect of the real estate market is more obvious.,...