The Analysis Of Chinese Business Cycle Fluctuation Mechanism Since2000

America financial crisis in2008triggered a global financial shock, which caused economic cycle theorists study the issue with more enthusiasm. The economic cycle theory is an important research field of macroeconomic, which studies economic growth, explores its formation mechanism, and provides a theoretical basis for the prediction and makes macroeconomic policies on the future economic development.Since China began large-scale economic construction in1953, it has been accompanied by economic fluctuations. China’s economy experienced a total of ten cycles by2013. Before and after the reform and opening up, both characteristics of economic cycle and formation mechanism of the economic cycle have significant differences. Especially since2000, China’s economic cycle fluctuation has appeared some new characteristics:first, the duration of the economic cycle has prolonged; second, fluctuations in the economic cycle showing an overall steady trend; third, the economic extension has expanded; fourth, economy appeared a deep "V" type of rapid decline and rebound during the period of economic contraction.The academic circles have not reached a consensus about the formation mechanism of the economic cycle. We found that the current research on the formation mechanism of the economic cycle mainly has the following problems: first, the study of economic cycle fluctuation characteristics mostly limited to the general description, without combining with the macroeconomic background for analysis; second, research on the forming mechanism of the economic cycle or simply by checking the relationships between economic variables, or by qualitative analysis,has not formed a complete and mature theoretical model and economic cycle. Therefore, we analyze the characteristics of each stage of the economic cycle fluctuation in China and its formation mechanism based on Chinese macroeconomic background. In order to solve above problems, we construct a theoretical framework to study Chinese economic cycle inherent conduction mechanism and external impact. Firstly, we summarize the domestic and foreign scholars about the economic cycle fluctuations in the theory. Secondly, we analyze economic cycle fluctuation and its formation mechanism before and after the reform and opening-up.Thirdly, we construct the monthly composite index since2000by13economic variables to analyze the economic fluctuation and its formation mechanism.In the empirical analysis, we analyze the situation of China’s economic cycle fluctuation since2000through the statistical research methods. According to the economic cycle "Valley-Valley" partition method, we found that the tenth cycle expansion period from2000January to2008July, the crest appeared in2005December, whose monthly index reached25.23858. The period of economic contraction from2008August to2009January, the valley appeared in2009January, whose index slipped-5.97. Since2009February, the economy has entered the next round of cycle, the economic fluctuation showed a trend of decline type..We analyze the inherent conduction mechanism through the VAR(vector auto regression). We found that:first, China’s economic growth potential is high; second, Chinese economic cycle fluctuation since2000is the result of the system internal accelerating force and deceleration.Third, in the formation of the economic cycle mechanism, conduction mechanism of the contribution rate is65.32%,and the external impact of the contribution rate is34.68%.Then we discuss the influence of external factors through the econometrics model.We found that:first, fiscal policy has hindered effect on output during the whole sample period, which has a promoting effect on output during the expansion period, and has no effect on output during the contract period. Whether in the whole sample period or during the period of expansion, contraction period, the impact of monetary policy on output is not significant. Second, Fiscal policy in the whole sample period and expansion period play a positive role on consumption, but it has no effect on consumption during the contract period. Monetary policy in the whole sample period and contract period play a positive role on consumption, but it has no effect on consumption during expansion period. We combine the measurement results with the macroeconomic background. This chapter is divided into2aspects to study the formation mechanism of the economic cycle.The conclusions of the paper are the following aspects. First, the reason of microwave trend is that the enhance of economic cycle inherent conduction mechanism. Secondly, the current policy impact is the main reason of the current cycle duration extension; Thirdly, reliance on export-led economy is not conducive to the stable development of China’s economy; Fourth, because of the lack of power to promote economic growth, China’s economic growth will decline in the next five to ten years, falling into the moderate growth interval.We offer the following policy recommendations.Firstly, the market should play a decisive role in the allocation of resources. Secondly, the government’s macro regulation and control should be more scientific. Thirdly, expanding domestic demand is the fundamental way to our country economic equilibrium and steady development. Fourth, accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure. Fifth, we should speed up the process of the market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises in our country. Sixth, improve the overall quality of China’s labor force. Seventh, accelerate the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate marketization reform.