Empirical Study On The Economic Fluctuation Of Guangdong Province And Its Formation Mechanism Since The Reform And Opening Up

The economic mode of Guangdong Province was transferred from a closed one to an open one after the reform and opening up, which brought new characteristics to its economic fluctuation. Under such circumstance, the research on the economic fluctuation of Guangdong Province and its formation mechanism has great practical meaning, so that institutional changes and policy adjustments can fit into the internal laws of economic growth better to achieve a higher efficiency.The thesis firstly uses various quantitative methods measuring the economic fluctuation of Guangdong Province since reform and opening up. Basing on the result, the thesis divides the economic fluctuation of Guangdong Province into five cycles and analyses the main characteristics of individual cycles. The research shows that the economic fluctuation of Guangdong Province was eased in recent years, which shows an increased stability in the economic growth of Guangdong Province.Since economic fluctuation is resulted from the interaction of internal factors and external factors, the thesis analyses the formation mechanism of economic cycles from both those two aspects. From the aspect of internal factors, the thesis focuses on consumption, investment, added value of three industries, employment as well as fiscal revenue and expenditure and uses correlation coefficient and simultaneous equation model to conduct a quantitative research. The research shows that the fluctuation in the second industry and investment exerted more influence on the formation of economic cycles compares with other factors. From the aspect of external factors, the thesis focuses on the trade relationship between Guangdong and Hong Kong as well as investment from Hong Kong and uses VAR model to conduct a quantitative research. The research shows that with a strengthening economic tie between Guangdong and Hong Kong, the fluctuation in these two external factors has significant influence on the economic fluctuation of Guangdong Province.Basing on the above analysis, the thesis finally proposes strategies on how to achieve a stable and efficient economic growth in Guangdong Province.