The Reasch Of The Listed Companies Financial Risks Based On The Perspective Of Cash Flow

With the integration of the world economy, Chinese enterprises are facingtremendous opportunities and threats, the going concern assumption in the traditionalfinancial theory can not work independently, the future of the enterprise towards amore uncertain situation and on the verge of crisis due to financial problems cansometimes occur even bankruptcy. At present, although Domestic and foreign scholarsshows strengths and weaknesses in the financial early warning research, there aresome success, but not perfect. Foreign research focused on the use of foreign financialearly warning analysis, financial early warning models selection and early warningindicators selection; Domestic research on this relatively late, and with foreigncountries, they slelected most of the traditional financial indicators to predict financialrisk. In recent years, more and more accounting scandal was exposed, the quality ofaccounting information that people have more uncertainty, have begun to question theattitude of accounting earnings information. At present, companies pay more attentionto the cash flow of information, and domestic and foreign research shows that theoccurrence of financial risk between the enterprise and the normal business, cash flowinformation to convey a big difference, but from the cash flows of a financial earlywarning research, cash flow indicators more play a supporting role, the limitations oftraditional financial indicators become apparent in early warning system.Based on these reasons, this theory is based on research in the cash flow andfinancial risk, select China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies in themanufacturing sector as the research object,2010to2013was first ST companies assamples, and in accordance with the ratio of1:1matching,selected never been ST’sthe same industry, similar to the size of a normal company as a pair sample, itspurpose is to eliminate the influence of constraints objective environment, improve the accuracy of prediction model. Representatives from corporate solvency,profitability, for now, development ability, and cash flow structure of five aspectsselected18indicators of cash flow to build the financial risk early warning model andreal estate listed companies in the sample selected for verification, come to thisconclusions: From the financial risk of the more recent time, the rate of cash flowindicators forecasting model more accurate; Listed companies solvency andprofitability is the most important factor affecting the financial risks,the listedcompany’s existing cash and development capacity flow indicators are relativelymajor factor, the cash flow structure is a secondary factor.