The Empirical Research On Financial Warning Of Small And Medium-sized Listing Corporation Based On Cash Flow

Since set up in 2004, SME board is of great significance for the entire market economy, effectively solving the problem of financing difficulties for a lot of small and medium-sized enterprise. Because most of SME rapid development in a short period of time, depending on a core technology or products. But the market is volatile, behind its high-growth also with great uncertainty. In order to avoid the loss of relevant interests groups, establishing an effective financial warning system has the very vital significance, it can make the related interest groups predict in advance. And in large part, the financial crisis of SME is because of the breaking of cash flow, so this article attempts to establish a financial early——warning model for the listed companies in SME board from the perspective of cash flow and non-financial indicators.This article selects manufacturing companies of SME as samples, combining with the characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises and financial warning theory. Then selecting 17 cash flow indicators and 7 non-financial indicators establish the financial early warning model, those indicators can comprehensively reflect the business conditions of the enterprises of SME. First, development of relevant selection criteria and select the study sample, the sample companies in the financial crisis and the normal ratio of 1:1,64 companies are selected as model samples; Secondly, through the t test, removes the indicators that are not significant between the financial crisis and health one. selecting eight cash flow index and five non-financial indicators; Thirdly, in order to get rid the co linearity in the 13 indicator this paper made a factor analysis, obtain the indicator variables do not have a total linear and formed five principal components; Forth, based on the five principal component establishing the Logistic regression model, and establishing the discriminate criteria; Fifth, to validate the accuracy of the model, and get the back accuracy of 85.9%, the accuracy of 2012 is 84%,of 2011 is 80.76%, that shows the accuracy of the financial crisis early warning model for SME enterprises.In this paper, research has shown that in the study of financial crisis early warning of SME enterprises, in index of cash flow, the multiple of interest safeguard cash, investment cash flow ratio, Investment capital structure ratio, main business revenue growth, and capital accumulation, these five indicators for SME enterprises have strong financial early warning function. In the non-financial indicators of the enterprises, the first big shareholder shareholding, the first big shareholder’s stake and shareholding proportion of state-owned shares ratio, the top five shareholders of the company’s total equity ratio and the general manager of quality,these four factors contained SME enterprises financial crisis forecast information.