Research On Financial Early Warning Model Of China’s Automobile Manufacturing Industry Based On SD

With the deepening of the market economy integration process, the uncertainty risks ofbusiness operation will be further increasing, from the macro environment, the industryenvironment to the internal corporate governance, which will create a far-reaching effect toenterprise’s survival and development. How to pinpoint the risk source of the enterprise intime, to achieve rapid and effective management, is the basic way to avoid enterprise infinancial trouble, to improve competitiveness, and get ahead.First, through the summary introduction of financial early warning theories and methodsat home and abroad, focusing on analysis of the characteristics of the system dynamic and itsapplication in the early warning research, which show the rationality and applicability in thestudy of the automobile manufacturing warning.Second, based on the system theory and the strategic risk management, establishes theearly warning research train of thought from the external environment to the internal controlwith the help of the system theory, and advances the index system of enterprise strategic riskcontrol measure based on risk management theory.Then, by analyzing the international and domestic environment for the development ofChina’s auto industry at present, find the characteristics and disadvantages of the autoindustry development from the Angle of horizontal comparison. From the system dynamicstheory, according to system dynamics modeling steps in turn determine the purposes ofmodeling and the system boundaries. Sure causality diagram and establish SD flow graphmodel and equation.Finally, to Shanghai automotive group company limited by shares for example, collectand manage the relevant data for the financial early warning system, and by using Versimsoftware simulation system data and dynamic changes for6to10years. Through the trendanalysis, find out the situation and potential problems, and carry out the sensitivity analysis onthe key factors affecting the system, which to point out the reliability and applicability of themodel prediction, combined with the analysis of the enterprise’s financial efficiency index andthe internal control effect, to provide reasonable reference for decision-making for the listedcompany financial warning.Through the above research, this paper established the enterprise internal and externalenvironment risk measurement index system, and built the financial early warning modelfrom the study of the financial risks. This will be good for application in automobilemanufacturing industry in the field of financial early warning system dynamics, and providesa certain theoretical and practical significance in considering the comprehensive enterprise financial risk, and effectively realizing the enterprise financial crisis early warning andcontrol.