Analysis Of The Risk Of Individual Housing Loan In China From The Macroeconomic Perspective

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998, the rapid development of market economy and the acceleration of the urbanization construction promotes residents to increase the housing needs of the market to cause the development of the real estate market, making the real estate industry gradually become an important pillar industry of the national economy. Therefore, the banks find a new growth point of personal housing loan business to promote the rapid development of individual housing loan business. Individual housing loan business of commercial banks has brought huge returns, while the risks are gradually exposed. Especially in recent years, the real estate market macroeconomic fluctuations have caused drastic fluctuations, largely affecting the bank individual housing loan business, so it is necessary to analyze and research from a macro-level perspective on China’s personal housing loan risk.Different from the past qualitative method only to analyze the risk of individual housing loans in China, the paper analyzes quantitatively individual housing mortgage loan risk from the angle of whether individual housing loans grow fast. Firstly, obtain the relation function between macroeconomic variables and individual based on macroeconomic data and individual housing loans from 1997 to 2014 by the GMDH method; then by Crystal Ball software of Monte Carlo simulation, draw distributed statistical results from 2015 to 2018 of personal housing mortgage loans; Finally, measure the individual housing loan risk from short-term and long-term through theory of VaR and international experience alert, and provide recommendations to prevent the risk of individual housing loans by providing recommendations and further effective measures.