The Research On Carbon Emission Tendency In Manufacturing Industry And Effect On Industry Industrial Added Value

With the background of China manufacturing industry becoming the significantpart to accomplish the CO2mitigation, this paper analyzes the important status ofmanufacturing industry to national economy based on the situation of themaufacturing industry in world and China, explore the disadvantage of China anddisadvantage.Firstly, on the basis of China manufacturing industry energy consumption, thispaper analyzes the carbon emission tendency in China manufacturing industry.Carbon dioxide emissions growth rate of manufacturing industry between2011and2002is129%, the average annual growth rate of14.3%. And it uses IPPC(2006)carbon emission estimation formule to estimate the manufacturing industrysub-sectors emission, uses the support vector machine and RBF kernel function, toanalysis industry trend of CO2emissions and growth rate, and takes ADF stationaritytest, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and VEC model estimation forChina manufacturing industry carbon emission and China manufacturing industryadded value, the detail conclusion are: the average increase rate is7%in Chinamanufacturing sectors during2012-2018, far lower than the manufacturing industryaverage annual growth rate of the carbon dioxide emissions in2002-2011.Secondly, this paper constructs the VEC model for manufacturing industry carbonemission and ones’ added value, analyzes the series stationarity, cointegration,Granger causality, the conclusion can be summarized as follow:①The time seriesof manufacturing industry carbon emission and ones’ added value are same rankcointegration, LZ~I(2)，LG~I(2)。②According to Johansen cointegration test, themaufacturing industry incease1%can cause0.63%carbon emission.③Maufacturingindustry can Granger cause carbon mission.