Study On Methods Of Operation Cost Forecasting For Oilfields Block

With the constant exploiting of the domestic oilfields，many oilfields are in the latterperiod of the development. The moisture content and the difficulty of exploitation are rising.In order to maintain production levels, we need to invest huge costs to compensate for thenatural decline, so the cost of oil and gas operations is rising. In order to control the oil andgas operating costs, we must forecast the cost reasonably and effectively.Nowadays, the forecasting of oilfields blocks operating cost is based on the historicalcost levels and operating and investment plans. This approach lacks of reliability andaccuracy. Based on the changes of the operating costs, finding a suitable approach withhigher accuracy to forecast blocks operating cost is great significant for strengthening theblocks cost budget management and promoting blocks operating cost control and theimprovement of economic benefits.On these backgrounds, we research the prediction methods of the oilfield blockoperating cost. First, we introduce the method of cost prediction, and then divide theoperating cost based on the production process, then analysis the characteristic of blocksoperating cost, and distinguish the variable part with the fixed part on this basis. The goal ofoperation cost forecasting is to predict the variable part. Take G block in the eastern oilfieldsfor example, we analysis the historical data characteristics and future trends of the blocksoperating costs. In prospect of application, we choose the combination of time-seriesforecasting method and VAR forecasting method from many forecasting methods. With thesemethods, we forecast the operating costs. Finally, we compare these two forecasting methods.The combination of time series prediction method is flexible and easy to carry out. The VARprediction method has the advantage of high prediction accuracy. Based on differentsituations, we need to weigh a variety of factors and select the appropriate method to forecast.