The Forecasting Research Of Electronic Products Sales Combination Based On The CPFR

Economic globalization makes the competence between the single firms has become the one between supply chains. Supply chain management has become the research hot in academicals domain.Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) is a new kind of supply chain integration technology after the supplier management inventory. It extended the cooperation between firms from inventory management to demand management. Sales forecasting is the core part of CPFR. Then, the combination forecasting model is researched in this paper.Based on the elaborating of research background, research significance and research content and method, this paper systemized the relevant theoretical basis of CPFR, discussed the concept and characteristics, goals and process, and the main problems in implementation process of CPFR, and reviewed the related researches of CPFR. Then, it introduced simply the relevant prediction methods, and puts forward the combined sales forecasting model selecting the time series forecasting and multivariable regression.Based on the empirical data, this paper discussed the test of time sequence stationarity, the identification of time series model, the parameter estimation and prediction of time series model. And based on the empirical data, this paper make the multiple regression analysis, the identification, estimation and prediction of the multiple regression model; formed combination model according to forecasting theory, and compared its predicts results to time series model, multiple regression model predicted results are compared.The results indicate that the prediction errors of combined forecasting model are less than the ones of time series prediction and multiple regression prediction; through empirical analysis, it proves the feasibility and validity of combined forecasting model, and the improvement of its predictions accuracy.Papers have stronger systemic structure of overall architecture. It looked supply chain coordination as the main target, the work flow collaborative planning, forecast and replenishment as the breakthrough point, the supply chain sales forecast as the main research contents. Finally, it formed a complete system.Through the combination of modern time series model and multiple regression models, constructing combined forecasting model based on the CPFR, and proof the validity of the model empirically is the innovation of this paper.