Research Of Volatility Characteristics And Trend Forecast In Chinese Rare-Earth Industry Cycle

The topic of this thesis comes from the regional project “Research on Early Warning System and Response Mechanism of Rare Earth Resources Strategic Reserve ”(Project No.71263022)of the National Natural Science Foundation of China.The rare earth strategic reserve early warning system is an important mechanism for the sustainable development of rare earth resources,which is conducive to the rational development and application of rare earth resources.However,in the complex and volatile rare earth market,how to accurately determine the timing of storage(release)of rare earth products It is an important issue at present.Therefore,through the combing of the development track of China's rare earth industry,the characteristics of the rare earth industry Porter are explored,and the development trend of the future rare earth industry is predicted,which provides a theoretical basis for government decision-making.The definition of the rare earth industry is based on the industrial chain.Due to the complicated situation of the downstream of the rare earth industry and the difficulty in data collection,this paper takes the upper and middle reaches of the rare earth industry as the research object.Based on the historical development status of China's rare earth industry from 1987 to 2017,from the perspective of economic cycle fluctuation,the cyclical fluctuation of China's rare earth industry research.This paper reveals the development history of China's rare earth industry and the law of cyclical fluctuations.Based on this,the grey prediction and SW2-CLI model are used to predict the cyclical fluctuation trend of China's rare earth industry.The paper is mainly divided into the following four parts.Firstly,it gives a detailed overview of economic cycle fluctuation theory and industrial cycle theory,and summarizes the research status of China's rare earth industry development.At the same time,it studies the industrial cycle fluctuation research and provides theoretical support for this paper.Secondly,through the analysis of China's rare earth industry supply,demand,price,export and rare earth management policies,the current situation of China's rare earth industry cycle fluctuations is analyzed.It is concluded that China's rare earth industry has cyclical fluctuations for more than 30 years,and the fluctuations are frequent.Taking China's rare earth industry supply as an example,from 1987 to 2017,China's rare earth mine output has a growth period of nine Keqin cycles,and the periodicity of other aspects of China's rare earth industry is also obvious.Therefore,in order to better describe the periodicity of China's rare earth industry,the cycle measurement system of China's rare earth industry is constructed.Thirdly,Combined with the above-mentioned China's rare earth industry cycle fluctuation measurement index system,using the principal component analysis method,the index system is concentrated to obtain three main components,namely demand component,supply component and price component,and finally construct China's rare earth industry comprehensive development index..Based on CF filtering,it reveals that China's rare earth industry has experienced six complete cycles,and is now in the rising phase of the seventh cycle.Each cycle is maintained at 4 years,and the rising period is similar to the recession.At the same time,the fluctuation trajectory of each cycle is analyzed,and it is found that the policy factors have obvious influence on the fluctuation of China's rare earth industry.Fourthly,using the SW2-CLI model,the first-order difference of the periodic fluctuation trend value of China's rare earth industry and the first-order difference of the demand component,the first-order difference of the supply component and the first-order difference of the price component are rolled back 22 times.The cyclic fluctuation of the rare earth industry is fitted,and it is found that the fluctuation direction of the fitted value is basically consistent with the fluctuation direction of the actual rare earth industry,and the error is small.Based on this,the gray prediction is used to predict the demand and supply of rare earth in China's rare earth industry from2019 to 2023.The predicted values of the three main components from 2019 to 2023 are obtained.The SW2-CLI model is used to treat the rare earth industry in China.The trend of cyclical fluctuations from 2019 to 2023 is predicted.The results show that China's rare earth industry will have a trough in 2020 and a peak in 2022.The research shows that the rare earth industry in China has cyclical fluctuations.The cyclical fluctuation of China's rare earth industry is sensitive to the rare earth industrial policy.At the same time,the cyclical fluctuation law of the four-year period is more obvious.At the same time,the SW2-CLI model has a good prediction for China's rare earth industry.Industrial development research provides a good reference.