Research On Real Estate Foam Evaluation And Macroeconomic Regulation Control Policy

The real estate industry occupies very important role in the entire national economy system in our country. It is a new industry, which has a union contains pillar industry and construction, and it is also the pillar industry of the national economy. It takes irreplaceable role whether from the view of promoting economic growth,or satisfying people’s material life needs. Especially for China at a speed developing at present, keeping healthy and stable developmeng of the real estate market is an arduous and complicated task.This paper researches three important parts, including theoretical research, empirical research and policy recommendations with a total of six chapters.Firstly, this paper begins from the research background and significance of this topic through extensively reading related literature, combing bubble theory and related theory. Mainly introducing the present research situation of the real estate bubble policy at home and abroad; Discussing growing phases of the real estate bubble; Analying the differencees between economic bubble and bubble-economy; Futher summarying formed subjective factors and objective factors of the real estate bubble; And describing several forms of the real estate bubble; Mainly pointing out that the real estate bubble has two sides, and which is a double-edged sword contains both advantages and disadvantages. In moderate real estate bubble stage, it should guide consumption demand reasonably, and expand domestic demand and promote the economic growth, so as to promoting the healthy development of the national economy. But if bubble degree is very serious, even with too much inflation, will disturb the normal order of market economy and restrain the development about other industries, so it may cause uneven distribution about social resources and financial crisis, finally, bringing serious harm to the society.Next, on the basis of studying of predecessors to real estate bubble test method, this paper applys more appropriate evaluation method, which is the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Because the accurate mathematical methods, based on rigorous reasonable analysis process to evaluating real estate bubble, often can cause problems such as forced quantitation object and the quantification process looks simple, the conclusion may vary a lot with actual situations, impacting objectivity and accuracy about assessment, so making full use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for studying fuzzy index problems is rather appropriate. Through the researches there are the conclusions:①through using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating the real estate bubble in shenyang, showing evaluation coefficient, there exists really bubble in shenyang real estate market at present, but it is only at moderate bubble stage, and the whole real estate market development is healthy on the basis.②The results based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating shenyang real estate bubble at present coincides with information from national government, and the research data doesn’t contain false composition, so fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is an applicable method in the detection of real estate bubble.Finally, through the above analysis, the author respectivly proposes the practical and effective macroeconomic regulation and control policy suggestions for different stages of the real estate market bubble.