Research On Decision-Making Model Of Economically Affordable Housing Based On Real OPtion

Economically affordable housing is an important component to China’ housing-security system, the function of economically affordable housing is to solve the housing problems of low-income families in urban areas. Since China has carried out housing-security policy, it has been stronger in economically affordable housing from the investment scale to the construction force. However, China’economically affordable housing policy is lack of theoretical guidance and practical experience, problems are emerged in economically affordable housing endlessly. Mainly displayed in the serious imbalance of supply-demand, lacking of supervision mechanism, lacking of perfect incentive and restrictive mechanism, location is not reasonable and the area is out of control, bank credit or financial system is not sound, lacking of perfect operation system in economically affordable housing, etc.This paper is based on this point, relying on the analysis framework of real options decision-making method to analyze decision-making in economically affordable housing. In order to find the problems and the solutions of economically affordable housing system, the paper uses the option games to analyze the principal-agent relationship between government and real estate enterprise in the process of implementation of economically affordable housing. The paper expounds the theory of economically affordable housing and real option, analyzing China’s development course and the current situation of economically affordable housing, exploring the main problem of economically affordable housing construction.A real option value decision-making model of economically affordable housing the theory of cloud is established. According to the random fluctuation characteristics of investment and profit in economically affordable housing, the paper summarizes the cloud theory and the real option value decision-making method, bringing the cost and cash flow in economically affordable housing into fuzzy,which are the project’s influential factors of real option value. The paper puts forward the value decision-making model and draws the normal cloud figure, real estate enterprise can grasp accurate project value decision-making through putting the most possible value of economically affordable housing within a small range. Finally, the numerical analysis verifies the validity of the model.A government regulatory decision-making model of economically affordable housing based on option game is established. The principal-agent relationship between government and the real estate enterprise emerges from interest and the asymmetry information, economically affordable housing’s characteristics engender the separation of management and supervision, In considering the information symmetry or asymmetry, the paper establishes symmetry information model and asymmetry information model based on real option games. The research indicates that, in the premise of two-dimensional cost and income under asymmetry information, the government should calculate the corresponding investment threshold value based on the observed profit and cost from economically affordable housing, then making contract with the agent consist of formulation. It can be sure that real estate enterprises achieve the construction goal of economically affordable housing at the low cost-income situation for providing the corresponding guarantee at the reasonable framework agreement with optimal threshold value. Numerical analysis proves the effectiveness of the model.