Analysis Of Effection About Urbanization On Real-estate Price

In recent years, fast-developing urbanization has been the inexorable trend of Chinese economic development, which has increasingly important influence on real estate price. Studying the influence of urbanization process on the housing price, grasping fluctuation of housing price and promoting coordinated development of urbanization and real estate market are of practical significance to promote regional economic construction and social development. This paper studies from the aspect of overall law of house prices on the impact of urbanization and regional differences.In the first place, the theoretical part takes advantage of relevant data to express the variation trend of Chinese urbanization from 1978 to 2013, calculating the average price of national commercial residential building from 2005 to 2013, and revealing changed condition of national commercial residential building during this period. Then it calculates average price of real estate of 31 provinces and cities during the temporal interval, initially analyzing regional difference in the corresponding period. Finally it gives out the linkage map of national housing price and the tendency of urbanization rate from 2005 to 2013, explaining the existing consistency of urbanization and housing price changes.In the second place, this paper holds the opinion that real estate price in different regions will have mutual effect with each other in the empirical part, which expresses the spatial association existing in housing price. When analyzing the influence of urbanization on the housing price, spatial association should be taken into account. Based on this viewpoint, this paper firstly adopts the data of average selling price of different regions from 2005 to 2013. Making the year 2005 as the base period, to deflate CRB(commodity research bureau), calculating every year’s Moran’s Index and Moran’s index of average housing price during this period. This paper verifies housing price’s autocorrelation of global extent and a local zone. On this basis, this paper will take autocorrelation of global extent at first, selecting 2013’s average selling price of different regions, urbanization level, land’s purchasing price, per capita disposable income of urban population, real estate investment to take the logarithm after deflator, and analyzing the wholeness law of influence of urbanization on housing price. The process introduces general linear regression model and then observes whether model residuals possess spatial autocorrelation. The result shows that there is no autocorrelation in model residuals, because spatial autocorrelation of the variable could be explained by independent variable. Therefore, in order to make the results more realistic, this paper brings the property into the model as an endogenous variable which can affect the housing price. Then, use above variables respectively to establish spatial lag model and spatial error model to compare. And then confirm to select spatial lag model through lagrangian function and AIC criterion, revealing quantitative relation between urbanization and the housing price. In the next step, consider the autocorrelation of a local zone. This part builds geographically weighted regression aiming at above variables, and programmes to solve variable coefficients of variables through software R, displaying regional difference of urbanization on real estate. Finally, it reaches the conclusion that:Autocorrelation global extent exists in real estate price of different regions in China. Considering this property in the model reaches the conclusion that urbanization can promote the real estate price. However, changes of the housing price are mainly affected by the supply-demand relationship. Fast-developing urbanization is not the primary cause that the house pricing increases irrationally. There are regional differences of influences of urbanization on the housing price that the housing price is more easily affected by urbanization in the East than in the West. But this kind of influence is gradually transfer to central and western regions, which shows the region with higher economic level is affected by both factors. However, with promotion of new-type urbanization, small and medium-sized cities gradually become hot spots for development. The influence of urbanization on the housing price becomes greater and greater in these regions.