Research On Country Risk Assessment Of Overseas Oil And Gas Industry Investment

In order to obtain a stable supply of oil and gas resources, ease domestic energy supply pressure,at the same time, to a certain extent, offset the impact o f high oil prices on the domestic economy, supporting multinational oil and gas companies with rational utilization of overseas oil and gas resources have becom e an important part of China’s energy strategy.In the global context of economic integration, the oil and gas resource management all over the world has shown a trend of internationaliz-ation operation, which provide favorable external conditi ons for China’s multinat-ional oil and gas companies to invest in overseas oil and gas resources. With the central "going out" strategy and the "efforts to use both domestic and foreign resources and markets" policy putting forward, it al so brings opportunities for oil and gas companies to expand overseas oil and g as business. Since 90’s of the last century, China’s petroleum enterprises has be en out of the country to participate in overseas oil and gas exploration and dev elopment project. At present, China has been doing business in Sultan, Indonesi a, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstanand so on more than 20 countries for the expansion of overseas oil and gas resources and have achieved initial results,which ease Ch ina’s oil security crisis in a certain extent. However, due to China’s entry into t he overseas exploration business too late, resulting in thedifficulty of exploitati on in oil field exploration, and the costs rise of the exploration; more stringent contractual terms is not easy to operate, as well as the uncertainty of the coun try’s political risk, which leads to our overseas exploration the pace of oil and gas resources more difficult. Unlike domestic oil and gas exploration, overseas oil and gas explorat-ion not only to face the enormous geological and econo mic risks, but the country’s investment environment and country risk resources encountered will cause a huge impact on oil and gas exploration and developm ent. the development process of overseas oil and gas risk assessment studies el aborated on the relevant literature and sort, understanded that the ways of scho lars anaysised the current state of risk factors for overseas oil and gas explorat ion were general international business projects, and some are even based on t he general projects, without considering the special strategic significance overse as oil and gas investment projects specific background and petroleum commodit ies.In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of existing theoretical research and learn from scholars for overseas oil and gas exploration in the country risk, b ased on the analysis of overseas oil and gas exploration and summarize nation al risk implications and characteristics, laid the foundation for this study directi on. Then this paper introduced the risk management process about the explorati on of overseas oil and gas, and comparatively analysis the domestic and foreig n scholars stage risk assessment methods which commonly used,finally determ ined to use BP neural network method to building national risk assessment mo del. Through the introduction of Chinese overseas oil and gas exploration invest ment,this paper has identified the country risk factors.And with the principle of comprehensive systematic, scientific, operability, comparability to select the risk evaluations, the overseas oil and gas exploration in the country risk evaluation index system has been built. Then use the principal component analysis meth od to establish risk assessment model and BP neural network, to make assessm ent and raw appropriate conclusions about 17 countries. At last,this paper pro posed national risk countermeasures from the perspectives of business and gove rnment.The specific performance was that in the risk analysis process, the resourc es in the country’s investment environment and the corresponding country risk was carried only a simple qualitative evaluation. This paper focus on the countr y risk evaluation of overseas oil and gas exploration, combine the qualitative and qua ntitative methods to make risk assessment, then finally enriches the theory level of Ch inese risk evaluation about oil and gas.