Under The Clean Development Mechanism Of Investment Project Risk Evaluation Research

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity causing global warming and sea level rising.It affects the survival and development of human beings.The world began to realize the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The Kyoto protocol, marked the beginning of the international community to legal means to limit greenhouse gas emissions.One of the important one of the trading mechanism is carbon emissions trading.The Kyoto protocol specifies three flexible performance way: the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM), the mechanism of Joint Implementation(JI), the International Emissions Trading system(IET).Only the CDM is implemented in our country at present.Although CDM has brought considerable benefits of reduce emissions to developing countries, many uncertain factors affect the project proceeds exist in the process of CDM due to the macro environment and the its nature.Improving risk management level of the CDMis a research priority.We select wind power, hydropower, afforestation and reforestation and HFC-23 decomposition etc four kinds of CDM project as the research object.Using themethodology andtheoryincluding monte carlo simulation method,probability and statisticsand the theory of modern investment, integratly using of qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis method to solve the problem of scattering CDM investment risk.First,the background of the problems,theories,research status detailed description of the current situation of China’s CDM market to analyze and summarize the existing problems.Second, the probability of identifying CDM risk types, building evaluation, simulation using Monte Carlo simulation NPV rates and statistical simulation results to evaluate the distribution and the cumulative probability of risk.Referencing modern portfolio theory, then proposingthe method of using portfolios to spread the risk.Based on the mean-variance model and the characteristics of CDM, the CDM project portfolio model is constructed to select the optimal portfolio.Finally, combining the research results, this paper put forward in view of the CDM project risk coping strategies.In this paper, progresses are:(1)After sufficient risk identification of CDM,using index variable substitution to denote the risk factors and achieving the purpose of quantitative risk.For four different types of CDM project facing different risk factors,Creating different NPV calculation formula,which contains variables embody the different risk factors on the influence of different projects.(2)Proposing portfolio diversification strategy and using the modern investment theory as guidance,combining the mean-variance model in the field of securities investment with actual situation of CDM in our country.Constructing the CDM project portfolio optimization model and drowing on unit risk income maximization of selection of the optimal investment ratio.Examining the cost and CER price under different rate of change of portfolio,providing a more comprehensive impact of the influence according to recognize the risks for investors,the CDM project investment decision has a certain guiding role.Then put forward the risk coping strategies.Itcombines the advantages of quantitative research and qualitative research, more focused and persuasive.