The Exploration Of Real Estate Prices In Yangtze River Delta Based On The Spatio-Temporal Viewpoint

Since the commercialization reform of the real estate market at 1998, Chinese real estate industry has experienced a rapid development for nearly 20 years and become the pillar industry facilitating the development of other related industries. However, the excessive expansion of real estate industry has induced the roar of housing price these years, raising the housing purchase pressure of urban residents while the rising momentum of housing price has been depressed after the outbreak of subprime crisis at 2008. Regarded as the region with the highest level of both urbanization and economic development, Yangtze River Delta region has served as the core economic growth pole of China. Hence, it is of great importance to explore the spatial spillover effect of housing price and its corresponding determinants in that region. Although there exist several specific housing regulating policies offered by the government, which has been proved to be inefficiency, denoting we need to explore the determinants of housing price scientifically and correctly. Based on the interregional real estate market during 2003-2013 inYangtze River Delta region, this paper firstly applies Moran’s I statistics to testify the significant positive spatial autocorrelation of housing price, then the specification of spatial-temporal approach has been determined as the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) by the parameter test following the chi-square distribution while the necessity for adding the variable of time dummy variable and time-lagged term of housing price has also been checked by the log-likelihood (LR) test. Accordingly, the dynamic SDM with time dummy variable has been chosen to be the preferable specification of spatial-temporal approach and the significant economic determinants of housing price have been explored in both aspects of direct and indirect. The existence of positive spatial interactions of housing price among inter-regional real estate markets reveals that the real estate markets among spatial adjacent regions should be regulated under the overall framework while polices made by each specific local municipality might produce the opposite effects, all of which provide scientific and novel insights for the authority to regulate the inter-regional real estate market efficiently.