The Study Of Debt Risk Evaluation Of China’s Highway Enterprises

The expressway is our country’s critical infrastructure, occupying a pivotal position in the national economy system. The expressways’construction started lately, but developed rapidly. In 1988 we built the first expressway of 18.5 km and the mileage of expressways had run up to 96,200 km at the end of 2012, ranking second in the world. Although the achievement of expressways’ construction deserve to be proud, at the same time, we also see the problems under that development. The expressway projects generally involve huge investment, high debt resulting in the increasing debt risk. Once unable to repay principal and interest in time, it will trigger a debt crisis. This paper studies the debt risk of expressway enterprises to establish a reasonable and effective evaluation system that help prevent and control debt risk targetedly to reduce the debt risk of expressway enterprises.Based on the the domestic and foreign research on the debt risk and had an in-depth understanding and analysis of expressway industry, the whole idea is determined as follows:First, most of the current financial risk evaluation model using a common evaluation model can not fully reflect the industry-specific differences. After analyzing the current situation and the facts that influenced the debt risk of expressway enterprises,the paper divided the debt risk into four dimensions as "raising risk-operating risk-solvency risk-profitability risk" based on capital running. Through consulting financial risk indicators that have been selected by valuable literature, then constructed the debt risk evaluation index system of expressway enterprises. Secondly,after the comparisont of existing risk evaluation methods, choosing AHP to give weights to the index system. For there is no uniform standard to measure the the selected indicators, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used as the main method and combined with delphi method to carry out debt risk evaluation, which not only could overcome the deficiency of subject thought and effectively process the fuzzy information, but also was scientific in calculation and convenient for the operator, at the same time the step-by-step process of calculating results conducive analysis of results.Third, To verify the usefulness of the research, using "Fujian Expressway Development Co.Ltd" as the case. Analysising its debt risk change during 2010-2012, then found out the deficiency and propose the suggestions of rectification and reform. Through case verified the constructed model is practicality and effectiveness. Finally, proposed the appropriate preventive measures against the debt risk of expressway enretprise, to provide reference recommendations for the managers to manage and control debt risk effectively.The index system enriched the theory of debt risk evaluation of expressway enterprises. The index system has a strong extensibility to the study, based on "raising risk-operating risk-solvency risk-profitability risk" research logic can be extended to other highway projects, or other real estate projects. Therefore, this research has important practical significance.