The Study On The Evaluation Of Debt Risk Of Hunan Provincial Government

In August 2014,the new budget law amendment was passed.The amendment clearly stipulated that local governments at the provincial level have certain independent issuance rights.This new regulation gives the local government a legal right to borrow.Since then,the local government's incremental debt will not includes government debt borrowed from financing platforms,and stock debt will gradually be replaced by local government debt.Therefore,in the new situation,it is very meaningful to study on the government debt risk assessment.Since 2008,In order to responded the Central Government's initiative and the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis,Hunan province has vigorously carried out large-scale infrastructure construction.While the economy has developed rapidly and the level of urban construction has rapidly increased,the scale of local government debt in Hunan Province has also increased.The growth rate was obvious,from 910.95 billion yuan in 2009 to a long period of time to 1.067719 trillion yuan at the end of June 2017.However,with China's economy has entered a new normal,the economic growth rate has gradually declined,the economic growth rate in Hunan Province has also slowed down significantly,the local government's fiscal revenue has also been affected,and government debt risks have begun to appear.Therefore,this paper wants to evaluate the debt risk of the Hunan provincial government,and hopes to put forward a targeted prevention and resolving risk proposal based on an in-depth understanding of the debt risk in Hunan Province.This paper first reviews the basic definitions of local government debt and related theories,including public goods theory,fiscal decentralization theory,and risk management theory.Then,based on the full collection of relevant debt data,this paper uses charts to analyze the local government debt situation in Hunan Province.The description and analysis were carried out,and the risks faced by the Hunan provincial government's debt were discussed in detail from various angles.The characteristics of the risks were summarized and the causes of the debt risks were explained.Then,this article divided the debt into repayable liabilities.There are three categories of liabilities for guarantee liability and liability for liability,which are combined with the three steps of borrowing,using,and repaying to selecting indicators,establishing an evaluation index system,and adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method when constructing a local government debt risk assessment model.The determination of the weights of the indicators in the medium-level analysis method was based on the analysis of the debt data of Hunan Province in 2016.The final conclusion was that the local government debt risk in Hunan Province was in a controllable range.Finally,the local government of Hunan Province was targeted.The reality of the debt is presented below Suggestions: Firstly,it is necessary to formulate a mechanism for optimal control of the debt of the Hunan Provincial Government;Secondly,to gradually improve the emergency treatment system for local government debt risks;and thirdly,to improve the information disclosure mechanism of the Hunan Provincial Government;Fourth,to be able to The bond market introduced an insurance system;Fifth,to improved the debt repayment mechanism of the Hunan Provincial Government.