Temporal And Spatial Changing Of Food Demand And Production Distribution Of Grassland Agriculture In China

Because of the significant change of food consumption structure, which the main food transformed from grain to both plant food and animal food, the study of grain security in China has become study of food security. To reply this change, Ren Jizhou has put forward an idea that changing the traditional agriculture structure and developing grassland agriculture. According to this idea, some researchers demonstrated the necessity of developing grassland agriculture, estimated its potential productivity and conducted some tests at different place in China. However, the current study is scarce of space requirement analysis of animal food, valid prediction of future demand and the developing plan of grassland agriculture. Thus, based on the former research, this study analyzed food demand change from 1998 to 2012, predicted demand quantity of 3 kinds of food in each province in 2020 and 2025 and worked out the entire grassland agriculture distribution in a short term in China. This study regarded the main food (grain ration, grain feed animal food and grass feed animal food) as the object, used the method of spatial econometrics and temporal trend prediction, took Food Equivalent Unit and Arable Land Equivalent Unit as the dimension.1 There has a big difference among provinces of per capita food demand. Per capita grain ration consumption was progressively decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the ladder law was more clear in 2012; per capita grain feed animal food consumption was more in the north and less in the south in 1998, but more at the middle part and less in north and south in 2012; per capita grass feed animal food consumption was more in the west region, and less at the middle part and more in the north and south in terms of the whole east region. Spatial econometrics analysis showed that each two of 3 kinds of food had positive spatial autocorrelation.2 Food demands in the future were forecasted in provincial scale. Exponential model was used to simulate per capita food ration consumption and linear models were used to simulate per capita grain feed animal food, per capita grass feed animal food and population.124 times regressions of 31 provinces were done. Parameter estimation show that most of the parameters were significant at p<0.05 level. To a very few not significant model, the quantity of 2012 was used to be conservative estimated.3 Formulate the grassland agriculture production distribution in a short time. According to the food demand prediction, the "’red line" of grain and grass ALEU in each province in 2020 and 2025 were calculated in this study. Then determine each province’s cultivated land area by grain yield and areas of grass-crop rotation and artificial grassland by resource situation. Thus, the planning of developing grassland agriculture to 2020 and 2025 were made in this study.