Food Security Assessment And Supply And Demand Projections In The Pearl River Delta Region

Recent years,the fast economic development in The Pearl River Delta Re gion causes population aggregation and the decline of the agriculture land area. Facing the food crisis that the decline in grain production and the imbalance between supply and demand,this thesis aims to give the comprehensive assessme nt of the food security situation both at present and in the further in The Pear 1 River Delta Region.In the part of the assessment at present,fully based on the research achie vement at home and aboard,the author aims at constructing a new type of fo od security early warning system,and giving the evaluation of the food securit y situation in The Pearl River Delta Region.The main method in this paper is "The Analytical Hierarchy Process".The author chooses 10 kinds of food sec urity indicators and sorts them out.After that,the authors pick out 4 kinds of indicators whose weight is greater than 0.1 to construct a new type of system. And then she gives the evaluation of the food security situation in The Pearl River Delta Region from 1996 to 2005,identification its warning rank accordi ng to its composite score.In the part of assessment in further,this paper nests the Precis and Ceres ,simulating the production of rice,maize and wheat in 2020s and 2050s under SRES A2 and B2 scenario over China which was released by Intergovernmen tal Panel on Climate.Change.And in accordance to the food demand in furthe r in The Pearl River Delta Region,the author gives the assessment of the bala nce between the supply of and demand for grain in further and offers the relat ed advice.In this Paper,the key findings are as follows:(1)the food security in this area is in a downward trend in recent years,the overall situation belongs to "slight warning" rank.Especially ther e is a low -water mark in 2003.Because of the shrinkage of grain outp ut and per capit a share of grain,this area will face a certain degree of risk.(2)In view of the evaluation according with the actual fact,we can judge that this new system is rational,acute and easy to operate.But itis short of the consideration of food currency,and some data about the impoverished rate o r food store was lacked.We should make further improvement.(3) Under SRES A2 and B2 scenario,the three kinds of grain production w as on the decline except the maize production in 2050s.The positiv e imp acts under A2 scenario is greater than that under B2.(4)Compared with the situation nowadays,the production in further has redu ced greatly.But due to the fertility function caused by CO2 do some co mpensating action,the production in 2050s will be greater t han 2020s'.Th e food demand increases as a whole,the food supply I s steadily upwards, and the food gap will shrink gradually(5)Ensuring the ample and steady grain production,fulfilling the grain store sy stem,establishing the social food security System of low-income people,bull ding a constructive partnership with the food supply area and establishing th e early warning model.