Thoretical And Empirical Analysis Of The Factors That Triggered The Financial Crisis

The paper is based on the study of reference and comprehensive domestic and foreign scholars, and makes a comparative analysis on the factors causing several major financial crises. Then the paper sums up the several common factors that triggered the financial crisis. The factors causing the financial crisis can be divided into two main categories. One is the internal factors, including the asset price bubble, the imbalance of international payments, the unreasonable financial liberalization process, the high bank risk and the unreasonable level of debt. Another is the external shocks, including the international hot money speculation and long-term international capital speculation in the domestic financial assets. At the same time, the paper constructs an empirical model and selects the multinational large number of sample data to make empirical analysis. The result shows that the asset price bubbles, the bank risk and the debt level have showed positive correlation of the outbreak of the financial crisis.Next, the paper uses Logit model to prediction the financial crisis in China. The paper constructs the prediction index of China financial crisis and selects three trigger factors:the asset price bubbles, the bank risk and debt level to prediction. The result shows that during the period from 2007 September to 2009 September, the probability of China’s financial crisis is big; in other periods, the probability of China’s financial crisis is small. And during the period from 2013 June to 2016 June, the probability of China’s financial crisis is very small.Finally, the paper makes policy suggestions about how to prevent the outbreak of financial crisis.