Research On Potential Impact Of The Bioenergy Development On Provincial Land Use Change In China

Bioenergy is of great importance to ensure energy security. The development of bioenergy will inevitably change the demand of land required by energy crops and other land covers. Under the circumstance, the land use structure of China will be adjusted to form a new round of land use pattern. In this paper, 31 province are set to be the study area and energy crops which can produce fuel ethanol are set to be the main study object. Based on the analysis of energy use and land use and consider the natural factors and human driving factors which impact the land use, this paper uses the Dyna-CLUE model to simulate and predict spatial Pattern of land use in 2020 under the non-bioenergy development scenario and bioenergy development scenarios. This paper intuitively show the optimal spatial distribution of land for planting newly added energy crops so that it can provide a guiding role for the future layout of energy crops industrial. At the same time, the bioenergy productive potential of provinces has been partitioned, which leads appropriate policy recommendations to be proposed to promote the healthy development of the bioenergy industry. The main work and conclusions of the research are as follows:(1)Based on the land-use map in 2000 and 12 land use driving factors selected from natural or cultural aspects, the land use pattern in 2005 is simulated by using Dyna-CLUE mode. The calculation of overlaying analog map and 2005 land-use map return the result that Kappa coefficient was 0.88, which indicates that Dyna-CLUE model is capable of well simulating national land use spatial pattern.(2)The land use pattern in 2020 is simulated in different scenarios by using Dyna-CUE model. Through the comparison of land use under the non-bioenergy development scenario in 2020 of and present status of land use, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of overall and classified land use are analyzed.(3)By comparing the spatial pattern of land use under bio-energy and non-bioenergy development scenario in 2020, the impact of bioenergy development on land use is deeply analyzed. Arable land will increase by 2.435 million hectares under the bioenergy development scenario in 2020. The increased cultivated area is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Sichuan and Heilongjiang Province, Guangxi. This paper also estimates bio ethanol productive potential of each province in 2020 through newly added land area for energy crops of the provinces. The result of estimation reveals that there areas very obvious differences of productive potential among the provinces and Xinjiang will be the area of greatest potential for fuel ethanol production in the future.(4)Based on the different production potential of fuel ethanol future, relevant policy recommendations about resources mining, industry technological innovation and energy deployment alliance are put forward.