Evolutionary Analysis Of The Development Of The Service Sector Contribution To China’s Economic Growth

Service economy has become a global economy trend, and the contribution of the development of services to economic growth is increasing throughout the world.By contrast, the development of Chinese services are lagging regardless of the amount or proportion in the gross domestic product,and it present the so-called the paradox of services development. Look from its development trend, service economy is a gradual process, namely: With the development of national economy and the continuous improvement of national income per capita, the proportion of service sector in the gross domestic product(GDP) will continue to improve, and ultimately play a leading role in the national economy. The so-called "service development paradox" phenomenon means that when a country’s GDP per capita has more than 3000 US dollars, the service sector will enter a phase of rapid growth, but this phenomenon has not been the reality in China. In the critical period of Chinese economic transition,the development of services plays a vital role in the economic growth. It has important theoretical significance and practical significance that the evolution mechanism of in-depth analysis of the development of the service industry’s contribution to the economic growth and the quantitative analysis of the development of the service industry’s contribution to economic growth.Based on the data about Chinese services industry and economic growth from 1978 to 2012 and observe the dynamic changes of Chinese services development and economic growth during this period,we can find that they have high correlation and irregularity on the change trend in different stages. Based on the theory and economic data, the evolution mechanism of Chinese service industry’s contribution to the economic growth mainly has three aspects which are technological progress and innovation,industry spread effect, deepening of division of labor. Based on the above analysis,we select the provincial panel data of 31 provinces from China and use the fixed effect and variable coefficient model to analyze the contribution of the development of Chinese services on economic growth. The results show that China is generally in the stage of economic growth that the second industry is the main driving force,the service sector’s contribution to economic growth is still weak. Otherwise,the contribution between the provinces is different.The different is associated with the provincial economic development lowly and highly correlated with the provincial resource advantages and industry structure. Finally, according to the analysis result,we give some suggestions about the service industry’s development promote to economic growth.