Research On Steel Industry Policy Simulate Based On System Dynamics In Ma’anshan City

The resource-related industries determines the resource-based city’s economic development. Ma’anshan City is a typical resource-based city, and steel industry is a pillar industry to support the local economic developme nt. Facing domestic and international opportunities and challenges, and how to de velop a scientific and rational industrial policy to guide the development of the steel industry, and how to achieve the "win- win" situation of economic and ecological development, is crucial.Based on the resource-based city theory, the industrial structure and life cycle theory, and system dynamics theory, this paper has an overview on the current situation of economic, steel industry and environmental system and finds out there exists some problems during the development, such as irrational industrial structure, environmental pollution and the short length of steel industry. After that, drawing on the results of previous studies, this paper construct the Ma’anshan City’s system dynamic model, which including two subsystems, economic and steel industry, environment, from the capital, technology, labor and resource perspective by using the Vensim PLE software. This model can be used to simulate the basic behavior of steel industry subsystem from 2012 to 2021. By combining the control variable parameters, this paper formulates four steel industrial policy, including Capital-oriented industrial policy, Technology-oriented industrial policy, Labor-oriented industrial policy and Environmental protection-oriented industrial policy and then assessments the effect of four industrial policy by steel industry output.The model simulation results show that: Technology-oriented industrial policy brings the maximum economic benefits, followed by Capital-oriented industrial policy, and Labor-oriented industrial policy brings little contribution of economic benefits. As for Environmental protection-oriented industrial policy, comparing to other policies, it makes the environmental benefits to the maximum and the economic benefits to the minimum. After comprehensive comparing, this paper finalized a comprehensive industrial policy for steel industry. At last, according to the simulation results, this paper presents some suggestions for the future development of steel industry in Ma’anshan City, such as taking advantage of resources, extending the steel industry chain, promoting technological innovation vigorously, stabling capital supply to steel industry, increasing the environmental protection investment, taking more attention to environmental protection.