An Empirical Study On Bias Of Provincial Technical Progress

It is widely accepted that the long-term and stable economic development not only needs the input of factors, but also needs technical progress. Most of the existing researches are built under the new classical economics theory, assuming that technical progress is neutral, and it can only measure the rate and contribution of the overall technical progress, which will neglect the bias of technical progress. But the current experience of economic development and some theoretical studies support the existence of the bias of technical progress. From a long-term perspective, in competitive markets, the direction of technical progress is the impact of factor prices, and play important role in the distribution of income. Based on this, this paper will take various provinces and cities of China as a unit to measure the direction of technical progress and try to explore the influence factors of the bias of provincial technology progress.This thesis is divided into five chapters, and the basic framework is as follows: the first chapter is introduction, mainly introducing the related background, significance of research, and reviewing and combing the related literature; the second chapter introduces the bias of technical progress theory, on the this basis construct the normalized supply-side system and the bias level of the technical progress, laying basis for the following empirical analysis; third chapter, namely the empirical part, is the core part of this thesis, by using the FGNLS method in the STATA11 estimates the normalized supply-side system constructed above, and based on this calculate the provincial bias level of technical progress; the fourth chapter discusses the possible causes of bias technical progress; the fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations.The main conclusions of this thesis:(1) using normalized supply –side system method and 1993~2011 provincial data I carry on empirical analysis, resulting the national average elasticity of substitution is 1.16, namely the overall average technical progress slightly bias capital. Then I analyzed the data of Beijing from 1978 to 2011 data were analyzed, resulting there is a tendency to increase the elasticity of substitution.(2) In the aspect of technological progress, the average value of 1994~2011 of TFP is 0.0419, which is China’s technological progress can lead to GDP with an average annual increase of 4.19%, and the contribution rate of GDP is 35.97%. However, the overall trend is down. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has the highest mean TFP, while Shanxi has the lowest. Regionally, the order from high to low in turn is western, Eastern, northeastern and central region.(3) The absolute value of the bias level of provincial technical progress exists considerable differences, namely the bias of technology progress of each provinces and cities exists big imbalance. But the bias of provincial technical progress during the same period is roughly the same. The estimation results of this paper confirm that the trend of the bias of technical progress and capital income distribution trend are consistent, supporting the theory that the bias of technical progress effects income distribution.(4)Through the case analysis, I discuss the effects of foreign direct investment, human capital, domestic invention patent authorization quantity, imports, capital stock per capita and the technology market turnover on the bias of technical progress of Shanghai, Chongqing and Hebei. Resulting that foreign direct investment will cause these three provinces capital-biased technical progress; domestic invention patent authorization quantity will cause Shanghai city and Hebei province capital-biased technical progress, but will cause Chongqing city labor-biased technical progress; the effects on these three provinces of other factors are not all significant.