Multi-Scale Time And Spatial Dynamic Changes Analysis Of Ukraine Cropland In Recent Ten Years

In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and the increase of population, cropland area per person decline for many years. The supply of cultivated land reserve resources has been in a serious shortage. To ensure food security of our country has become a major problem to most scholars. Ukraine is known as "the European barn". Its black land area ranks first in the world. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s agriculture was indepression. Although in recent years the situation of Ukraine agricultural production has rebounded, but still facing the problem of lack of funds and technology aging. In recent years, China and Ukraine have frequent cooperation in the field of agricultural investment. Chinese agricultural investment could provide financial and technical assistance to Ukrain. And also would win this reliable market of China for Ukraine.Therefore, this paper takes Ukraine cultivated land as the research object. Using 30m global land cover of remote sensing mapping data based on the year of 2000 and 2010. Combined with other statistic data, analyse the land use status of Ukraine, the quantity change of cultivated land use, the degree of land use change, etc. from the national, the State, the Grid three different scales. Based on these, using principal component analysis study the driving forces of land use change in Ukraine. Forecast the land use situationin for the next few years in Ukraine by Markov model. Specific content is divided into the following four parts:The first part is the research background and an overview of the basic theory. This part introduced our country and foreign related research and practice mainly from the research methods, research scale, driving force, land cover data set, and several other aspects of the domestic. At the same time, described the research content, methods and technical route in detail.The second part introduced the overview of the study area and the processing of data. This part mainly introduced the natural, social situation in Ukraine, the process of 30m globalland cover remote sensing mapping. Describe the extraction standards and methods of farmland in detail.The third part is the research of land use change analysis and forecast. This paper respectively from the national scale, the state scale, the grid scale three different scales, using land use change of the amplitude of dynamic degree, relative change rate of cultivated land, cultivated land reclamation rate, the change of land use degree and cultivated land gravity migration model analyse the dynamic change of cultivated land of Ukraine from longitudinal and transverse for the first time. At the same time, use the land use type conversion model, analyse space-time dynamic change rule in Ukraine, so as to achieve a comprehensive grasp of the purpose of land use change in Ukraine.The fourth part is the study of the driving forces of cultivated land use change. Considering the availability of information, this paper respectively research natural and socialeconomic factors of study area from the national scale, state scale two different scales. The national scale has 12 driving factors. The state scale has 7 driving factors for principal component analysis. Through the analysis, we got the comprehensive driving force changes and the main driving forces of cultivated land use change in Ukraine. Finally, using Markov model simulate the process of land use in Ukraine, forecasting the future trend. In order to achieve a comprehensive grasp of the purpose of land use change in Ukraine.