Land Use Simulation Analysis Based On GIS

With the quickening pace of China’s urbanization and the implementation of the cultivated land protection policy, land use/land cover change (LUCC) research has become the focus of current research. Land use change analysis and simulating land use change in the future has very important significance.Taking Longyang District of Baoshan City in Yunnan Province as the research object. First of all, analyzing Longyang District land use status of 2009 and 2013. Then based on the data of land use in 2009 and 2013, using CLUE-S model for Longyang District to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2013 and 2020. This has a certain reference significance of Longyang District of future land use planning and land intensive development. It also can provide reference for similar research in the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau in the future.By analyzing Longyang District land use present situation in 2009 and 2013, we can know that the Longyang District land resource type is very rich, where have cultivated land, forest land, grassland, garden land, housing construction area, roads and structures, artificial pile digging, desert and bare surface, water and other types of land resources. Cultivated land and forest land in the area has the geographical advantage, especially in the mountainous and hilly region. Land use degree higher places are mainly distributed in the city proper and its surrounding area. The constructive land mainly distributed in urban surrounding where does not include the city. The urban development relying on to the surrounding urban development in Longyang District. The centralization of land use index Woodland predominantly is high in the northeast and the west, it has to do with local rugged steep terrain and forest protection policy. Cultivated land is mainly distributed in central and southern areas where the terrain is relatively flat. Brand garden is distributed in Lujiang town in the southwest. The main development area of Longyang District is the city and its surrounding area. The road is gradually improving in most of the area. Northwest area belongs to the area where land use type change is relatively large, garden area increase, forest land and water area decreased.Forecasting land use spatial pattern in future mainly uses the grey prediction model, the system dynamics model and the CLUE-S model. These three models together to accurately predict the future land use change. The grey system model is mainly used for forecasting economic and social statistics. System dynamics model is based on economic and social statistics, by using the methods of regression analysis, establishing the relationship between social and economic data and the demand for land use data, according to the grey prediction model to predict the social and economic data to simulating the land use demand. CLUE-S model is divided into spatial module and non-spatial module. Non-spatial module is set up the demand data for land use, which is based on system dynamics model. Space module will distribute land demand data in space by land use transformation mechanism. First of all, according to the Logistic regression model to determine the relationship between the driving factors and the land use type. Then using the ROC method to judge the correlation between drive factors and land use types. The results showed that the various land types ROC values were greater than 0.6, which showed that driving factors which were from the combination of economic and social and natural factors meet requirements of the model. Finally, improving CLUE-S model prediction accuracy by setting the land type conversion coefficient of elasticity coefficient and iteration. According to real land utilization and land use in 2013 figure compared with the simulation prediction, Kappa coefficient of correlation is greater than 0.75, which shows that simulation accuracy is higher and the CLUE-S model can be used for simulation to predict the future land use change. Finally, simulating the spatial distribution pattern of land use forecast of Longyang District in 2020 based on the data of land use status of 2013.