The Study On Land Use And Land Cover Change And Dynamic Simulations Based On CLUE-S Model

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) is the focus of scholars in the current global ecological and environmental change researches.The use of 3S techniques combined with math model to make advance assessment for land use status for several years, can provide the scientific basis for rationally arranging agricultural and non-agricultural land according to local conditions as planned.This paper chooses Linyi as the study area in Shandong Province.Firstly, based on the remote sensing images, three classification maps of land use types in 2001, 2007 and 2016 are obtained. Through the comparison of different time and space, this paper analyzes the characteristics and regularity of land use distribution in Linyi in 15 years.Finally, four different scenarios are set and the maps of land use types in Linyi in 2025 are stimulated under the four scenarios by using CLUE-S model.This research includes the following main aspects:(1) On the basis of data preprocessing, three classification maps of land use types in 2001, 2007 and 2016 are obtained, by using linear spectral mixture model and maximum likelihood method. In this paper,the ENVI 5.1 platform is used to preprocess the remote sensing image.According to the actual terrain features of the study area, the spectral library of the study area is established, and the linear spectral mixture model combined with the maximum likelihood method is used for image classification.(2) Analysis on the characteristics of land use change in the study area from 2001 to 2016. Using the maps of land use types after the remote sensing interpretation, this paper respectively analyzes the processes and regularity of land use distribution in Linyi in 15 years in three aspects which are the quantity and structure change, the land type transfer change and the time and space change of main land use types.(3) Selection of driving factors and the optimal simulation scale of land use change in study area. The ten driving factors are chosen, and the regression analysis parameters and ROC curves of different scales are obtained through Logistic regression analysis on eight different scales.The optimal simulation scale of 240×240 m is finally determined for the study area through the comparison of the ROC curves.(4) The CLUE-S model is constructed to simulate and verify the land use change in the study area. The land use types in 2007 and 2016 are respectively simulated based on the land use data in 2001 and 2007.Kappa index is respectively 0.8064, 0.8341, that shows the prediction accuracy of CLUE-S model satisfies the forecast of land use change in Linyi.(5) Scenario simulation and analysis of land use change in the study area. Based on the interpretation data in 2016, the future patterns of Linyi in 2025 are simulated in four scenarios, such as natural growth,ecological protection, economic development and cultivated land protection.