Study About The Customers’ Express Service Preference Based On Discrete Choice Model

With the rapid development of economy and e-commerce in China, express service demands have been continuously increasing and the volume of the express service in 2014 ranks the first in the world. Among the Chinese express industry, domestic express, accounting for 55.3 percent and 72.3 percent, occupies most market share. Furthermore, the express market will open to the foreigner companies in 2015. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the customers’preference from the perspective of the express customers, which could help the express enterprises understand the needs of their express customers, improve the express service and finally obtain more market share. The research in this paper has important economic significance and practical application.Starting from the express service, this paper designs express service survey and collects the data of express choice behavior. Then, according to the dominant variables and latent variables to classify survey sample, based on random utility theory and express service attributes, this paper respectively builds three discrete choice models to capture express customers’preference. They are the generic model, homogeneity model and heterogeneity model. Depending on the results of the three models, the paper finally calculates and analyzes value of time and elasticity index of each service indicate, and adjusts express service provided by New Express to predict the change of the express market share.The results in the paper show that classification models based on dominant and latent variable are more accurate in describing the customers’choice behavior, and express customers are affected by the different item types, delivery purpose and customer groups. Therefore, it suggests the express companies to do the express behavior segmentation and offer differentiated and diversified services for different market segments to investigate express customers’preference. This paper helps express enterprise managers learn different preferences of express customer segments, find market opportunity, and guides the existing and the emergency enterprises to deal with the new market challenges.