Assessing The Sustainability Of China Based On Inclusive Wealth

In recent years, with the rapid growth of Chinese economy, a series of high consumption and high pollution problems appeared. Although China always puts environmental protection and resources conservation as a basic national policy and has formulated corresponding policies to solve and improve these problems, the effect is not obvious. It is mainly because current economic growth mode of China is not scientific, which pays attention to economic growth only but ignores coordinated development of economy, society and environment. Problems such as waste of resources and environmental pollution can’t be solved fundamentally, therefore the sustainable development situation of China in future is not optimistic. Based on this, this paper adopts inclusive wealth index proposed by scholars including Kenneth Arrow, conducts analysis on the wealth value and wealth changes in China in 1990-2008 from physical capital, human capital and natural capital (including energy capital and land capital) and uses Grey-Markov model to predict China’s inclusive wealth during 2009-2018, and then analyzes the sustainable development capacity of China based on inclusive wealth changes during these two periods so as to provide reference and guidance for the formulation of economic policy of sustainable development in China.This paper first calculates wealth composition of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China during 1990-2008, including physical capital, human capital, energy capital and land capital and gets the inclusive wealth of China and each province, and then analyzes wealth changes of China and each province. The results show that, during this period, China’s wealth value increased, among which physical capital made the largest contribution, followed by human capital and land capital, while energy capital showed negative growth. From the analysis of each province, we can know that during 1990-2008, except for Heilongjiang and Xinjiang, inclusive wealth value increased in all of the rest 29 provinces. Then it takes inclusive wealth value of China and each province during 1990-2008 as the basis, uses Grey-Markov model to predict the inclusive wealth of China and each province, the results show that during 2009-2018, China’s inclusive wealth value will increase year by year, among which Beijing will make the biggest contribution, and Hainan will make the smallest contribution, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Liaoning’s inclusive wealth values will decrease in this period. Lastly, it analyzes sustainable development capacity of China based on the changes of inclusive wealth in China and each province, the results show that China’s economic development in 2008 relative to 1990 showed weak sustainability, in 2018 compared with 2009 also showed weak sustainability; through the analysis of the provinces’situation, comparing development in 1990, China’s 31 provinces only Heilongjiang, Xinjiang is not sustainable development area in 2008, and the 2018 comparative data for 2009 shows that Liaoning will turn into unsustainable area, China needs to pay attention to these three areas.Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations in terms of economic transformation, improving energy utilization efficiency, improving the quality of the population and raising people’s consciousness of resources, so as to promote a more sustainable China.