Empirical Research Between Tax Revenue And Economic Growth In The Central Region

Along with the deepening of reform and opening-up,the political and economic system has been improved greatly and release of great productivity.Economic growth has a great development.The central region have a share of the dividends of reform and opening-up.But the central region of the rapid growth of economy is beginning of 2004,when the plan of the risen of the central region was launched.In this case,the relationship between tax and economic growth increasingly attracted people’s attention,especially in the near future, The economic situation is very complex and changing,at the same time,we must continue to promote the reform and opening-up,especially we need to constantly promote the tax reform,so this study now has more practical significance.This paper makes a systematic review of the tax in each school’s theory of economic growth,but not rigidly adhere to them,this paper also use the research methods of empirical analysis and descriptive analysis. Firstly, this paper perfectly introduces the basic concept of tax and economic growth,standard of the measure and the main influencing factors. Secondly, sort and statistical analysis the data of tax and economic growth of the central region in 1994 to 2013.Analyse the changes of economic growth and tax revenue over the years,the different situation between the six provinces in central region,and then this paper make a cointegration test to measure the impact of economic growth on tax revenues,and further make analysis of error correction.The conclusions as follows,the coefficient of the actual GDP effect on tax revenue is 1.2543,the gap between the actual tax revenue and the actual GDP in the short term can be adjust back in the next period,and maintain a reasonable relationship between the real economic growth and the real tax revenue Thirdly, this paper analyzes the real per capita GDP,value-added tax,business tax,corporate income tax,personal income tax and the proportion of these taxes accounted for the tax revenue from 1998 to 2013 in the central province of china. Then this paper makes a descriptive analysis of the overall tax burden level,the proportions of the main taxes acount for the revenue of tax.And then this paper use Panel data model analyzes the effects of the overall tax buden level and the proportions of the main taxes acount for the revenue of tax on real per capita GDP.The results show that in the middle part of china the overall tax burden level has a significantly negative influence on the per capita real GDP growth rate,the ratio of value added tax and the ratio of business tax have a significant positive effect on economic growth rate,the ratio of corporate income tax has a negative impact on the economic growth rate, but not very significant,the ratio of personal income tax has not significantly affect the economic growth rate.Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, combined with the current economic situation and considered the need of promote fiscal reform,this paper puts forward several policy for local government in the central region:promote economic growth,strengthening the administration of tax collection,to improve the performance of fiscal expenditure of local government,actively promote Sales Tax in the VAT and careful implementation of income tax policy.