Study On The Pricing Model Of Commercial Auto Insurance Under The Background Of Rates Reform

The motor vehicle insurance shares the largest proportionon Chinese property insurance market.Its premium income has accounted for more than 70% of total property insurance premium incomefor several years. The rapid development of motor vehicle insurance, also contributed to the prosperity and active property insurance market. But behind the boom, it is undeniable that the current insurance market has many problems:a serious problem of product homogeneity, unreasonable and irrational ratemaking phenomenonsare very prominent.If these problems are not solved in time, in the long term they will impact the sustained and healthy development of the auto insurance market. After June 2014, the "co-insurance internal Congress" determined a new round of auto insurance rates market-oriented reform, chaired by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the curtain of a new round of the market reform is about to begin. The focus of the reform is to change auto insurance rates from the original "car factor" based ratemaking mode, to determining the base rate by adding "from a human factors".In the context of market-oriented reforms, in order to explore a reasonable auto insurance ratemaking method to enhance the efficiency of the auto insurance business, this article combined qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.First, this paper reviews the traditional models and methods which determining the total average auto insurance rates and classification rates, and then start from the influence factor of determining auto insurance rates:"the car factor" "the human factor" "zero integer ratio factor ", constructing generalized linear model to estimate the commercial auto insurance pricing.Generalized linear model combines the advantages of traditional methods of determining auto insurance rates, and be able to cater to the characteristics of the actual auto insurance payment data. Assuming exponential distribution family is the distribution type of explanatory variables, the connection function can contact a linear combination of the expected value of explanatory variables with the explanatory variables, which can better simulate the actual situation in the auto insurance payment. In the empirical part, we use the loss of vehicle insurance claims data from a property insurance company in Shandong Province, constructing a reparation strength generalized linear model and a reparation number generalized linear model. Finally, we calculate the expectations of net premium correspond to different risk levels. Combined with the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, we put forward some proposals about the current market-oriented reform.