Research On The Influence Factors Of Inflation In China

After years of rapid economic growth and low inflation, our country produced a higher level of inflation caused by economic overheating in 2007. And our country’s economic development was influened deeply by the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in the U.S. in 2008, which was quickly swept the world. In order to prevent the financial crisis, our Government has launched a 4 trillion economic stimulus plan, this measure is a double-edged sword, on the one hand, it does make the development of Chinese economy maintained a steady level, but on the other hand, makes the market is flooded a lot of money, which caused the potential problems for a new round of inflation started in the second half of 2009. The present performance of the new round of price increases from early 2010 to the present is the rising of the overall price level brought by price rising of the food, housing and commodity. The inflation rate in four consecutive months from June 2011 to September 2011 is over 6%. They are 6.4%、6.5%、62%、6.1%. The inflation rate for the whole year 2012 is 2.6%, and for February 2013 is 3.2%, and for the May 2013 is 2.1%. There are many kinds of the types of inflation, but no matter which type of inflation will be on the development of economy and have great influence people’s life level. Serious inflation and even the economic development of stagflation, residents serious decline in living standards, and even lead to social unrest, therefore no matter from the perspective of economic or social point of view, to strengthen the research of the inflation problem is of great significance.This article is based on theoretical analysis and adopts the measures of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, empirical analysis and normative analysis of organic unity to feedback and explain the theory and empirical combined with the actual situation. The logical idea of this article is as follows: First, conducting a simple sort induction for the literature on the effects of inflation factors and then carrying out the analysis of logical reasoning based on the existing theory and research results on inflation, from the the four perspective, including cost-push, demand pull, currency and external factors to select 14 variables for analyzing factors affecting inflation in China. Then conducting the Integration dimension reduction of the 14 variables through factor analysis, principal component analysis to integrate into four main factors. Secondly, according to the choice of the main factors of variables, based on the required necessary statistical treatment of the data to establish a VAR econometric model. Then using statistical software for measurement to carry out the empirical analysis and correlation test. Finally, on the basis of existing theoretical and empirical findings, combining with the actual situation on the relevant theories to analyze and collate suggestions.