| Referred to as the first year of the Internet financial, in 2013, under the impact of the Internet thinking traditional financial format and structure is affected and changed.P2P lending as a kind of typical Internet financial mode, since 2005 since its establishment, the first net credit platform and the British P2P network credit platform have sprung up all over the world in the spread of countries, in the traditional financial institutions has brought intense impact at the same time also makes the financial regulatory authorities faced with enormous challenges.China’s earliest P2P network platform was established in 2007, while in China, development time is short, but since 2011 China P2P network credit market expansion in the scale development, has gradually become an important part of China’s Internet financial markets.P2P lending refers to the personal use of network platform loan idle funds to lend new lending patterns, shortage of funds is relatively high interest rates, small, convenient and unsecured are the general characteristics of this borrowing mode, all information audit and financing behavior of the borrower is implemented through the network, such as borrowers apply for loan in net credit platform, and set a they are willing to pay the highest interest rates and the loan amount, at the same time, other related information, network platform will these people to apply for loan in platform listed on the website.Investors need based on the information provided by the borrower to decide whether to provide funds, under normal circumstances, the Chinese platform investment lower limit is 50 yuan, each project can be completed jointly by multiple investors borrowing.With the rise of the Internet financial network lending sector has attracted the attention of more and more scholars, academic research on net lending market also continued to deepen, the P2P network platform development, accumulated a large number of individual transaction data, not only for the study of P2P network credit market interest rate changes provided an ideal of "window", as well as to examine the traditional financial theory is still in the new network credit markets work, provides an "experimental field" In P2P lending interest rates, not only reflected the ability to pay of the borrower, it also means investors may get investment income, since the data and measurement method is no longer restricted network platform in the theoretical research a bottleneck, so most of the field study is given priority to with theory combined with empirical research, but these studies mainly based on the net the micro individual credit market, and each loan main body exist different demand function, this makes more interest rate equilibrium can exist in the credit market, the resulting in the conclusion part of the research on some controversy.The current P2P network breadth and depth of the credit market development has to study provides necessary conditions for the market interest rate fluctuations.So, in the interest rate marketization of relative network lending market fluctuations in interest rates will be what are the characteristics?At the same time net lending market interest rate changes behind can reflect what kind of economic behavior?These characteristics as well as economic meaning behind and to the market main body of investment and financing, financial regulators have how to reference?This is of concern to us, also is the main purpose of this article research.In this paper, the first chapter briefly introduces the general operating mode of P2P lending market and compared with the traditional lending market’s main features.And reviewed the literature scholars focus on the direction, on the basis of the selected topic significance and the innovation of this article.The second chapter systematically the P2P lending market research conducted a comprehensive combing. To seven aspects in the form of transverse paper made a comprehensive analysis of the relevant literature review at home and abroad, and discussed some important literature research ideas, methods, main conclusions and deficiencies, found in the existing studies of net loan interest rates, in research method, perspective and research framework there are different problems.And try to overcome the limitations of the micro data of this study, extend the research methods and framework.The third chapter from the net credit market, regional and the range of interest rate changes trend of P2P network and so on three aspects to borrow the earnings volatility has carried on the simple instructions.In the first place in the fourth chapter expounds the theoretical foundation of the model in this paper, at the same time to use model and the data source, the design variables.After data analysis, found in March 2012 to May 2014, net lending market average rate of 21.164%.Net lending market interest rates on the works shows the characteristics of "reverse cycle", at the same time with Shibor overnight interest rates between one-way spillover effect.The fifth chapter mainly based on the proposed in the fourth chapter research method, the ARCH effect of net lending market interest rates and fluctuation characteristic has carried on the empirical test, and the corresponding conclusions.In the analysis of empirical results found that "rush thick tail", the "volatility clustering" and other phenomena that exist in the traditional financial markets is also with net lending market, and because the contained behind the interest rate risk cannot be reflected, so the efficient market hypothesis cannot be established in the marketAt the same time, the reversal effect exist in P2P network credit market, and based on the supply under the rational expectations theory can better explain the phenomenon.Found in the asymmetry of the interest rate fluctuation test in the P2P network credit market volatility asymmetry, and prospect theory of deterministic effect and reflection effect can fully explain the reason, but the effect of the asymmetry is not significant, this also means that China’s Internet financial system remains to be perfect.Chapter 6 in the study of the full text summarized, on the basis of some enlightenment.P2P network in China’s Internet financial loan market interest rate volatility of the empirical analysis shows that compared with traditional lending markets, the network of the lending market overall size is small, so the financial authorities to try to network lending market interest rate as a measure of China’s financial market liquidity and a complementary means of macroeconomic trends, and in the regulation, you need to establish and perfect the credit market information disclosure system, and pay attention to because of the institutional change to net loan market and market structure of mutation, lending to prevent multiple platforms and casino-style financing caused by systemic risk.Investors need to have the ability to risk identification and diversification of consciousness. |
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