The Researches On The Relationship Between The Economic Growth, Final Energy Consumption And Industrial Structure Of Shanxi Province

Energy is the material basis of normal economic. Shanxi is a large province in energy-producing and energy consumption, but it is a weak provincial economy, But economic development is very slow. Even at the height of the coal market early in the 20th century. Shanxi’s economic development is still far behind other provinces in our country. At the same time, the decade golden age of coal, which prospered coal industry, but hindered the development of other industries. When coal prices began to fall in 2010, Shanxi’s economy declined at a very fast pace, In 2014 the economic growth rate is only 4.9%. Because of economic development model is too simple, which caused by Shanxi’s industrial structure and final energy consumption structure. How to optimize the industrial structure and energy consumption to accelerate economic development has become a top priority in Shanxi. Therefore research the relationship between economic development, industrial structure and the final energy consumption between Shanxi Province is important for developed energy development strategy and optimizing the industrial structure. So that the economy can quickly develop.In this paper, Used Shanxi 1978-2013 annual data of GDP, final energy consumption and industrial structure as samples. Analyzed the current situation of the variables. Analyzed the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, industrial structure.by Cointegration test, Impulse function analysis, Analysis of variance, Gray theory, Factor decomposition and other methods, In this paper, the main conclusions are:(1)The process of economic growth is always accompanied by a growth in energy consumption, and And the rate of economic growth as same as energy consumption. Energy consumption intensity is declining, Final energy consumption structure has been changed, Coal consumption is declining, electricity consumption increased steadily, natural gas consumption is relatively stable, a steady increase in electricity,coke, oil and gas consumption. Coal, electricity as the main energy, oil and natural gas consumption is low; The first industry, secondary industry and third industry showed different trends, Proportion of third industry rose sharply, the first industry and third industry trends are reversed. The proportion of secondary industry float is small, As the main driving force of economic development.(2)By the production function model, Found there is cointegration relationship between the variables. On economic growth final energy has the greatest contribution, Capital investment in the second, but in the short term labor inputs can promote economic development.(3)Based on gray correlation analysis, Coal, coke, electricity, oil, gas have different correlation with GDP at different stages. Consumption of coal and coke are easily interfere by domestic policy and economic development’s situation. Electricity, gas, oil is not only unsensitive to external stimulation. But also when the economy is in a downturn, has a close relationship with the economy. Correlation between Industry output and Energy Consumption: γ03>γ02> γ01,Correlation between Industrial energy consumption and final energy consumption P02>P03>P01.(4)Based on Decomposition Method. Analysis the Impact of Industrial Structure on Energy intensity. Early results of energy consumption intensity decreased mainly from energy efficiency after 2011 the impact of the industrial structure gradually over the energy efficiency. Based on vector auto regression model, By impulse response function Analyze and variance decomposition, analysis the effect of interaction between GDP, final energy consumption and industrial structure, Economic growth has long promoted to energy consumption and industrial structure optimization; Energy consumption will help optimize the industrial structure in the short term,and help economic growth in long term; In the short term the industrial structure’s change can increase energy consumption, But long-term will reduce energy consumption.(5)Finally, Provide some advices for the economic development of Shanxi Province. Develop a diversified economy; Optimize the industrial structure; Adjust energy consumption structure. Increasing the levels of development and consumption to electricity, natural gas and other clean energy. At the same time, improving energy efficiency, policy mechanisms, so that reducing the risk of Shanxi coal economy and to improve the environment.