The Research On The Effects Of Farmers’ Differentiation To Our Food Production

If the agriculture is abundant, the basis will be strong; if the farmers are rich, our country will prosper; if the rural area is smooth, the society will be stable.Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and the cornerstone upon the development of other industries.If our agriculture does not prosper, what about the other industries? The food is the basis of agriculture, if the food production is unstable, how about the prosperity of agriculture? In recent years, China’s grain production has made rapid development, food production has increased substantially.In 2014, China’s grain output reached 607.099 million tons.It has an increase of 5.16 million tons more than last year and the increase is 0.9%. However, due to China’s agricultural production is facing the basic conditions like less arable land, big population, poor infrastructure, weak anti-risk ability and so on,which result in our food supply is always in the basic balance, but the tight state. In order to meet the increasing demand for domestic consumption,China’s imports of wheat, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products showed a rapid growth trend. Although imports of agricultural products can alleviate domestic food supply pressure to a certain extent, but if in the long run, it will make our domestic industry suffered heavy losses and in the event of international food prices soaring, China’s food security will fall into the kinds of danger. Therefore, based on the domestic industry,trengthening agricultural infrastructure and stable production are the right choices for the food security.Industrial progress by the workers, the development of agriculture will by the farmers. Farmers as the main part of agricultural production, their enthusiasm for growing grain will have a direct impact on China’s grain output. However, with the development of industrialization and urbanization, China’s rural area is setting off a working boom quietly. Farmers have left the countryside into the cities, and engage in other occupations unrelated to agricultural production, farmers differentiation’s trend has become increasingly evident. Farmers’industry -oriented, arable land’s non-grain oriented and many other issues will also appear, resulting in the issue of food security has become the focus of much attention.In order to explore the meaning of food security and its influencing factors, scholars have started researches. What’s more, they are fruitful and lay a good foundation for the latecomers to study this problem. But most existing studies focused primarily on the aspects of the qualitative research for macroeconomic policy and other factors. They are lack of the quantitative research on the impact and through field investigation to get the microscopic analysis of individual data to make a additional studies on the macro data is even fewer. This author will break from the two points to expend and supplement the energy of the study on this issue.In order to make a reasonable guide for the farmers’ differentiation, stabilize the grain’s production, ensure the effective supply of food and guarantee the food security, I selected the relevant time series data of the years from 1989 to 2013 and used Eviews software for empirical research on the impact of farmers’ differentiation to food production, and found that:Occupational differentiation and Income differentiation exist unidirectional causal relationship with grain sowing proportion; namely, Occupational differentiation and Income differentiation is the Granger cause of grain sowing proportion, while,Occupational differentiation and Income differentiation exist bidirectional causality, namely Occupational differentiation and Income differentiation reciprocal causation relationship. In the long run, the influence of occupational segregation on grain sowing increasing proportion is not big and its influence reaches about 40% in the time of lag 10.In the middle,it has a process from the first acceleration to deceleration and stabilization at last. The influence of Income differentiation to the proportion of grain sowing has a slowly increasing trend. In the time of lag 10, its influence will reach about 10%. Occupational differentiation and Income differentiation exist more significant negative impact on the proportion of grain sowing, when the farmers’ Occupational differentiation increase 1%, the proportion of grain sowing will decrease 0.2274%; when farmers’ Income differentiation increase 1%, grain sowing ratio will decline 0.3688%.In addition, in-depth study of national large data, this paper chosen Hubei Province for the study. In order to investigate the microstructure by individual data, to achieve the macro data’s supplement and perfect, the research team visited multiple cities and counties in Hubei Province to conduct a field survey for the situation of the Farmers’ differentiation and food production.And by the Logit Model Analysis of Influencing Factors for the wishes of farmers to grow grain, especially focuses on the the influence of the differentiation of farmers to food production,and the results showed that: the smaller farmers’ age, the lower likelihood willing farming; the higher education level of farmers, the lower possibility also willing to farm; the higher degree of occupational differentiation of farmers, the lower farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain; the better subsidies, the higher enthusiasm of farmers growing grain; and farmers’ income differentiation had no significant effect on the willingness of farmers grow grain. Therefore, in order to stabilize food production and food security,we should improve the social security system, cultivation the new agricultural business entities,establish and improve the agricultural insurance system, stabilize the prices of production materials,optimize the grain subsidies and take reasonable and effective measures to promote land transfer, etc. It is the only way to ensure the sustainable development of agriculture, the increase of production and income of farmers and the stability and prosperity in rural areas.