Study On The Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit Based On Matter Element Analysis And BP Neural Networkin In South Of Jiangxi Province

After entering twentieth Century, the completion of the industrial revolution, people’s economic income and leisure time are constantly increasing, which makes people longing for those casual and comfortable place become possible, but also makes the development of tourism become possible. When people have a materials and time of travel, tourists need to choose tourism destinations,where development needs of national support to better attract more visitors. In 2013, the National Tourism Administration issued "on the implementation of views supporting the South of Jiangxi Province Province tourism industry development of the original Central Soviet area",to seize the opportunities of state support for the South of Jiangxi Province tourism, In this paper, to study the Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit of the South of Jiangxi Province and A-level scenic(points), its purpose is to solve the problem of South of Jiangxi Province in tourism development with the process of tourism planning, management and protection of environmental resources, increase tourism income, realizing the sustainable development of tourism and the harmony between man and nature.This paper first introduces the related theory of Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit, Matter Element Analysis and BP neural network; Secondly, respectively established the calculation model and prediction model of Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit based on Matter Element Analysis and BP neural network; Thirdly, two kinds of model is also applied to Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit of South of Jiangxi Province; Finally, using C# and Arcobject.NET platform to develope a information system analysis of application in Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit of South of Jiangxi Province,which based on Arc GIS, The system integrates the function of model to solve, thematic map and spatial analysis as a whole, realized dynamic management and analysis of Tourism Environment Carrying Capacit of South of Jiangxi Province.The calculation results by the matter element analysis method, with the natural landscape and cultural landscape of the main scenic spots: only at the suitable load bearing state(Ⅱgrade standard) Tongtianyan and gourd farm in year and season of tourism environment, while the off-season both are weak load condition(Ⅰgrade standard), the Yeping red tourism scenic spots, three hundred mountain scenic spot and Yang Ling National Forest Park only in season time, the tourism environmental bearing capacity is suitable for loading condition(Ⅱgrade standard), the rest of the time are in weak load condition(Ⅰgrade standard), Hakka customs Park and the resort no matter at what time the tourism environment bearing capacity are weak load condition(Ⅰgrade standard); Cultural landscape dominated by scenic spot: in each time at the weak capacity(Ⅰgrade standard) of this type of loading state scenic area overall tourism environment. Through BP neural network forecast knowable, state at 2014 levels on the tourism environment bearing capacity in 2015, but the predictive value of calculation value smaller than in 2014, showed that the study area in the form of tourism development in 2015 will be better than in 2014, 2016 Tongtianyan, treasure gourd farm, Hakka culture city, Yeping red tourism scenic spots, the long march starting Memorial Park, Kansai Hakka enclosed houses and Fort wine tourism environmental bearing capacity state last year, but its predictive value also decreased significantly, indicate that there is a change in trend of these scenic area tourism development; prediction of Hakka customs Park, the Central Museum of history, three hundred mountain scenic area, 9 resorts and Yang Ling National Forest Park of these scenic spots value in 2015 compared to smaller values, at the same time also illustrate the trend change good these scenic area tourism development.