Excess Production Capacity Of External Type

The economy of China runs into the shifting period, with a slow economic growth, and the economic structural problems are more prominent, excess capacity has become a universal phenomenon. Excess capacity is not only reflected in the existing traditional industries, such as coal, iron and steel, some of the emerging industry is also facing a crisis. At present, China has more than one industry appears serious overcapacity situation, adjusting the industrial structure is potential imminent.In this paper, we runs from a typical fact:overcapacity, a prominent problem from China Economy, by using the method for calculating the rate of productivity from year 2001 to 2011 China manufacturing industry capacity utilization, according to South Korean higher (2011), in order to measure industry situation of excess production capacity. Then combined with classical models of Krugman (1980), Melitz(2003,2008) and a "wave phenomenon" analysis method proposed by Yifu Lin et al. (2010), using China manufacturing industry data and relevant trade data from year 2001 to 2011, in the view of rational and non rational during the process of the enterprise market fluctuation, we study the research of the double effect excess capacity may has on the sustainable development of China export industry, and with the anti-dumping investigation Chinese products face deep international economic relations. The results showed that:ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, petrochemical coking, chemical raw materials, rubber products, non overcapacity problem of metal mineral products, chemical fiber, paper products and printing products eight industries, and the textile industry is also on the brink of overcapacity of danger. Market factors and institutional factors for the problem of excess production capacity has more significant effect, which factors contribute to greater market. Further study found that, the capacity utilization rate and export delivery value with long-term and short-term contact, and mutual causal relationship between Grainger. Industry overcapacity and anti-dumping cases more industry there is a big range of coincidence.Finally, this paper based on the empirical results, put forward by foreign trade policy adjustments, to solve the excess capacity of the policy recommendations:One is strengthen supervision, strictly limit the related industry capacity expasion.Two is, to actively implement the "going out" strategy, to increase foreign direct investment, especially to increase foreign investment in infrastructure. Tree is the development of emerging markets, developing markets, explore new marketing channel; Four is the border opening as an opportunity, strengthen the border provinces and neighboring countries, infrastructure investment, the transfer of surplus production capacity.Compared with the existing researches, the possible contributions includes the following aspects:first, we study the mechanism of the excess production capacity from the view of entrepreneurs’ essence—rational and irrational. Second, we lock the research goals in the external type of excess production capacity which depends on international market, and we define the type of external ones. Third, in the theoretical aspect, we combine the new trade theory model with the hyperbolic discounting model so as to build the model of external type of excess production capacity.