| Since the market-oriented reform in 1998, China's real estate industry has been developing rapidly. Especially in the past decade, housing price continued to rise. Under the impact of various factors at home and abroad, house prices rise rapidly or gently or turn downward, showing a boom- recession cyclical fluctuation. In order to investigate the characteristics of that fluctuation, this thesis, based on the BN trend-cycle decomposition method,firstly measure the cycle of house price and elaborate on the causes of each cycle. Then the thesis decompose China's tax revenue and analyze the linkage between tax revenue cycle and house price cycle. Finally the thesis focus on tax structure and use provincial data to construct a panel data model to further explore the impact mechanism of tax policy on house price. The thesis find that house price has experienced eight complete cycles from 2001 to 2014, and its fluctuation characteristics are in line with economic realities. Dynamic economic situation at home or abroad will cause fluctuations in house price cycle, the same as government regulatory policies on real estate market. Huge external shocks may lead to fluctuation in cycle or even form a new cycle. The thesis also find that there's a significant positive correlation between tax revenue cycle and house price cycle, and volatility in tax revenue cycle will affect the fluctuation of house price cycle. Finally, the panel model shows that China's current tax structure has played a role in pushing house price up. So we put forward some suggestions that policy makers should be concerned about the cycle stage of house price so as to take appropriate measures to promote stable development of the real estate market. At the same time, by optimizing the tax structure, such as appropriately increasing the proportion of resource tax and behavioral tax, reducing the proportion of main tax, we can curb the rising housing price and promote harmonious development of China's economy. |
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