Research Into Stage Of The Economic Cycle And Influencing Factors Of Hunan Province

Hunan Province as one of the Central China’s provinces in recent years, the totaleconomy continuously ranked the top ten, the economic growth rate was also higherthan the national average. While rapid economic development, we also note that theprovince still faces many uncertain factors in enhancing the economic growth rate toguard against fluctuations in the province each factor phases of the economic cycleinfluence, in the current complex economic environment. This paper attempts todivide the province on the basis of the economic cycle stage, to grasp the overalleconomic situation in our province, to understand the impact of each factor on thestage of the economic cycle in our province, to make policy recommendations topromote steady and rapid economic development of the province.Based on the related literatures which were reviewed, this paper firstly analyzesthe mechanism of the various factors that influence economic cycle stage conversion,especially on the impact of demand, supply, system and external. Secondly, we useSTAR model for the province’s economic cycle stages divided in two stages. On thebasis, We manage to perform the four-stage division using the production functionmethod, which proving the results were divided into two stages. Combined with thefact of the typical province’s economic development, we adjust the empirical results atlast. The empirical results show that: the province’s economic cycle stage appear to beasymmetric obviously, but did not appear serious recession and economic overheating,at the same time the conversion speed of economic cycle stage is faster. On this basis,we use multi-Ordered Probit model to analyze the marginal effects of the factorsaffecting the economic cycle stage conversion, to study its impact on the province’seconomic cycle stage conversion. The empirical results show that: the increaseddemand, technological innovation, system optimization, and the external economicenvironment row, is conducive to enhancing the possibility of the province into theprosperity phase of the economic cycle.Finally, we put forward some suggestions on how to maintain stable and rapideconomic development in the province, based on the current economic situation in ourprovince.