Empirical Study On The Change Of Chinese Manufacturing Term Of Trade And Comparative Advantage Based On Dynamic View

With the rapid growth of China’s manufacturing trade, the questions of how trade terms change and whether trade conditions worsen or improve attract many scholars’ attention. Moreover, it is an undeniable fact that China has already been a trade great nation, not a powerful nation. Some scholars question whether China has fallen into "the trap of the comparative advantage". Therefore many scholars have begun to study the dynamic comparative advantage. They think a country’s comparative advantage is dynamic in the long time. If a country wants to obtain more trade interests in the international market, must follow the dynamic comparative advantage. It is meaningful to study China’s dynamic comparative advantage, and the relationship between China’s dynamic comparative advantage and manufacturing trade conditions.Generally, NBTT、ITT、FTT are adopted to measure a country’s terms of trade. This paper makes a simple overview of these indicators.The part of dynamic comparative advantage, define the dynamic comparative advantage theory according to the existing researches. And then set up theory mode to analyze dynamic comparative advantage from three aspects of production, technological innovation and economies of scale. Two theoretical models are established to analyze the relationship between dynamic comparative advantage and trade conditions. The model of determination of terms of trade shows that the change of three indexes of terms of trade is closely related to the dynamic comparative advantage factors. The model of change of terms of trade shows that developing countries’NBTT is deteriorated after changing comparative advantage. However, ITT and FTT may be improved.According to the theoretical model, the article selects volume of import and export from 1990 to 2013 to measure the trend of Chinese manufacturing trade conditions. Results show that the terms of trade are improved in the past 24 years. RCA、LFI and TO are used to measure the Comparative advantage status quo. The results show that China’s manufacturing comparative advantage is improved year by year, the drawing shows the relationship between China’s dynamic comparative advantage and manufacturing trade conditions is linear. In chapter four, evaluation system of comparative advantage’dynamic ability is established analyze China’s comparative advantage. The results show that dynamic capability of comparative advantage is risen as the enhancement of labor endowment advantage、capital endowment advantage technology innovation advantage and scale economies advantage. The empirical results show that enhance comparative advantage’dynamic ability can improve China’s manufacturing trade conditions. In the end, the related policy proposal is put forward from three aspects of factor endowments, technology innovation and economies of scale in combination with the practical situation and full text analysis results.