Simulation Of Dynamic Change In Land Utilization In Zhuji City Based On CLUE-S Model

Zhuji City in Zhejiang province has a unique geographical location and climatic condition. Alongwith the development and fast growth in economics of Zhejiang province, human activities are growingwith each passing day, it will influence more on land use/land cover change, thus cause the change ofecological environment. Therefore, we hope to study how to improve the area land rational planning andprovide the basis for optimal allocation through the analysis of land use/cover change process, drivingfactors and prediction model. In this article of land use/cover change in Zhuji City, we have bothhistorical analysis and future simulation. This article has two aspects of significance in theoretical andpractical.This paper uses GIS technology, the landscape pattern analysis method, CLUE-S model andLogistic regression to analysis land use change of the study area within last30years. Based on that, wecan get the land demand. Combined with the statistics study of all aspects such as nature, economy,social society, land use/cover change of the study area can be predicted by model, and we can doanalysis of the land use type conversion rules. The results show that:(1) The change rate of land use types and urbanization rhythm of Zhuji city are consistent. Year1984to2005is in the initial stage of Zhuji city urbanization, a lot of forests and farmland wasdeveloped and changed into urban construction land. Urban construction land area increased to5.51%,forest space was reduced by5.75%. Year2005to2013, the amount of forest and farmland help the landarea of town construction increase reached the rate of46.13%and50.30%. Through the analysis of thecomprehensive index of land use degree of Zhuji from1984to2013, results indicate that the regionalland use is in the period of development, and the degree of development is the gradually increasing. Upto2013, the comprehensive index of land use degree increased and reached the half of the highest level.(2) Landscape pattern types of land use/land cover changed from year1994to2013significantly;Shannon diversity index continued to increase, the richness of land use in the study area raised, citydevelopment shows healthy trend, city development process to accelerate at the same time, the land usepattern is optimized, tends to be stable and uniform.(3) Through many different data, we extract9driving factors of land use which have the mostobvious influence to land use type, such as distance to road, river, lake, residential, elevation and slope, to simulate the land use/cover change pattern of Zhuji city in2021. The ROC test results showed agood simulation result: forest land0.904, land0.745, urban construction land0.826, water0.893, so thedriving factors can be used in the simulation model. By the Kappa test, the correct rate of the grid is87.3%, after calculation, the Kappa index is0.831, this value is greater than0.8. It means simulation hasstrong consistency with real map.(4) Through the2021prediction map, urban construction land of Zhuji expensed obviously, thefaster expensed area showed the main trend to north and south, along the basin distribution channel,expansion to East and West direction is limited, in the edge of Zhuji city, position near Hangzhou andShaoxing County, a small increase happened. Forest and cultivated land transferred in different degreebased on the original level, cultivated land shows the spatial distribution of more dispersed; forestdecline in its original size, but still have a large area, the main forest is less affected, the reduced scopeis mainly distributed in the forest edge, or flat terrain. the water area did not change significantly inspace, but it increased overall.